🔮 Prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets – NHL (October 27)

Why this pick

The pick is D. Mateychuk Over 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Denton Mateychuk went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 6 of 12, averaging 1.92 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 6 of 12 (50%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 4.

Denton Mateychuk's last 12 games

6 of 12 over 1.5

1.5

1vs Montréal Canadiens · 5-2 · 04/11

1vs Boston Bruins · 2-3 · 04/12

1vs Washington Capitals · 1-2 · 04/14

2vs Buffalo Sabres · 6-3 · 10/01

1vs Utah Mammoth · 1-4 · 10/03

4vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 3-2 · 10/09

1vs St. Louis Blues · 3-5 · 10/10

3vs Florida Panthers · 3-7 · 10/13

3vs New York Rangers · 1-0 · 10/17

1vs Minnesota Wild · 1-2 · 10/18

3vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 2-6 · 10/20

2vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-1 · 10/24

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AI Pick for Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets – NHL

The pick is Denton Mateychuk: Over 1.5 shots on goal at 2.20.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Denton Mateychuk finishes above that number.

First fact: the line of 1.5 sits 0.42 below what Denton Mateychuk produces on average, 1.92 shots on goal per game over the last 12.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 2.2 shots on goal, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.7 from the line.

Game by game against this line, 6 out of 12 would have cashed.

At 2.20, break-even means hitting about 5.5 out of every 12, and the sample is only just above it: the price is fair, not a gift, and the model fills in the rest with the bookmakers' consensus.

In his last 4 games he posted 2, 3, 1, 3 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 6 of 12 across the whole sample.

Within the sample, Denton Mateychuk averages 1 shots on goal in his 3 road games, which is how he plays today.

The Philadelphia Flyers defense: 28.7 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.56 (rank 11 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

In hockey, shots on goal are a question of minutes: the more time Denton Mateychuk spends on the ice, especially on the power play, the more chances he has to add up.

If his team has to chase the game, volume usually climbs.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Denton Mateychuk clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rule to keep in mind: without Denton Mateychuk in the game, the bet is void.

What can go wrong: his coach cutting his minutes or moving him down the lineup, or a tight game in which his team barely shoots.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 2.20 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.