🔮 Prediction for New York Rangers vs Los Angeles Kings – NHL (October 26)

Why this pick

The pick is A. Lafrenière Over 0.5 points. Over his last 12 games, Alexis Lafrenière went over the line of 0.5 points in 9 of 12, averaging 1.25 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 4, with 3 blanks in those 12.

Alexis Lafrenière's last 12 games

9 of 12 over 0.5

0.5

0vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 5-1 · 10/01

0vs Detroit Red Wings · 2-0 · 10/02

1vs Utah Mammoth · 4-2 · 10/04

4vs New York Islanders · 5-2 · 10/06

1vs Washington Capitals · 1-3 · 10/09

2vs Vancouver Canucks · 6-2 · 10/11

2vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 4-1 · 10/13

1vs New Jersey Devils · 1-7 · 10/15

0vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 0-1 · 10/17

2vs Anaheim Ducks · 5-2 · 10/19

1vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 4-5 · 10/22

1vs Ottawa Senators · 4-7 · 10/24

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AI Pick for New York Rangers vs Los Angeles Kings – NHL

The play is Alexis Lafrenière Over 0.5 points at 1.69.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Alexis Lafrenière has been averaging 1.25 points over 12 games, and the book set the line at 0.5: 0.75 below that average.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 1.2, practically the same as the plain average, 0.7 above the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 9 of his last 12 games.

Is it enough? At 1.69 you need to win roughly 7.1 out of every 12 just to break even, and Alexis Lafrenière has been well above that bar.

His last 4 games (1, 1, 2, 0, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

Within the sample, Alexis Lafrenière averages 1.83 points in his 6 home games, which is how he plays today.

The Los Angeles Kings defense: 3.56 goals allowed per game over 9 games, against a league average of 3.22 (rank 7 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

In the NHL a point is a goal or an assist: every involvement in one of his team's goals counts.

So the Over depends as much on him as on his line producing goals.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Alexis Lafrenière actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

If Alexis Lafrenière ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.

What can go wrong: his coach cutting his minutes or moving him down the lineup, or a tight game in which his team barely shoots.

One last practical note: 1.69 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.