🔮 Prediction for Dallas Stars vs New Jersey Devils – NHL (October 27)

Why this pick

The pick is T. Meier Over 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Timo Meier went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of 12, averaging 3.83 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 8, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Timo Meier's last 12 games

8 of 12 over 2.5

2.5

0vs Boston Bruins · 0-4 · 04/14

4vs Philadelphia Flyers · 3-2 · 10/01

6vs New York Islanders · 0-6 · 10/03

8vs Utah Mammoth · 3-5 · 10/06

4vs Vancouver Canucks · 4-1 · 10/10

1vs Ottawa Senators · 1-4 · 10/12

2vs Detroit Red Wings · 5-4 · 10/13

2vs New York Rangers · 7-1 · 10/15

3vs Washington Capitals · 2-4 · 10/17

8vs Colorado Avalanche · 4-3 · 10/20

5vs Anaheim Ducks · 4-1 · 10/22

3vs Los Angeles Kings · 3-1 · 10/24

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AI Pick for Dallas Stars vs New Jersey Devils – NHL

The play is Timo Meier Over 2.5 shots on goal at 2.00.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Over his last 12 games he averages 3.83 shots on goal, 1.33 above the line: the typical Timo Meier number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 4 shots on goal, practically the same as the plain average; it also sits on the pick's side, 1.5 from the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 8 of the last 12 games, Timo Meier finished on the pick's side.

Is it enough? At 2.00 you need to win roughly 6 out of every 12 just to break even, and Timo Meier has been well above that bar.

Recent form backs it: 3, 5, 8, 3 in the last 4, with 4 of 4 on the pick's side, above the rate for the full sample (8 of 12).

In the sample, his standard deviation is 2.55 shots on goal: a boom-or-bust player, capable of games far above and far below his average, and the line sits 0.5 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 2.75 per game over 4 games.

The Dallas Stars defense: 21.6 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.56 (rank 32 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Timo Meier actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

A rules detail: if Timo Meier doesn't play, the bet is voided.

What can go wrong: his coach cutting his minutes or moving him down the lineup, or a tight game in which his team barely shoots.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 2.00; below that it shrinks, above it grows.