- Goals: 70.1% of matches had a first-half goal; 33.8% had two or more.
- Halves: the 2nd half brings more goals (55.7% of the total versus 44.3% in the 1st).
- Half-time: the side leading at 45 minutes ends up winning 77.4% of the time (home) and 68.0% (away).
Bookmark this guide: it has a step-by-step method for evaluating first-half markets, and you will want to tick it off again for every match.
Your progress is saved in this browser.
What are first-half bets?
These are bets that look only at the first 45 minutes.
Stoppage time of the first half counts.
Whatever happens after the break does not matter.
They cover several markets.
They include the first-half result, first-half goals and both teams to score in the first half.
There is also the “half-time/full-time” market.
It is a shorter market, with less time for a mistake to be corrected.
That is why you should look at the data before choosing it.
How to evaluate a first-half market in 5 steps
How many matches have a first-half goal?
This is the base frequency you need before thinking about odds.
Look at each league separately: they do not all behave the same.
| League | Matches | With a goal in the 1st half | With 2 or more goals | Share of total goals in the 1st half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 2,204 | 76.8% | 42.3% | 44.8% |
| Eredivisie | 2,158 | 76.4% | 41.8% | 44.3% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 2,094 | 73.6% | 36.6% | 44.6% |
| Premiership (Scotland) | 1,613 | 72.9% | 35.2% | 45.6% |
| Premier League | 2,740 | 72.8% | 36.6% | 44.6% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 2,223 | 72.1% | 38.0% | 43.7% |
| Süper Lig | 2,412 | 71.8% | 35.2% | 44.1% |
| Ligue 1 | 2,409 | 70.6% | 33.8% | 44.2% |
| Serie A | 2,750 | 70.2% | 33.1% | 43.7% |
| Serie B | 2,711 | 69.5% | 31.6% | 45.5% |
| Primeira Liga | 2,223 | 69.0% | 33.6% | 44.6% |
| Championship | 4,007 | 69.0% | 31.5% | 44.3% |
| Super League (Greece) | 1,722 | 67.7% | 31.5% | 44.9% |
| LaLiga | 2,759 | 66.7% | 30.8% | 43.4% |
| Ligue 2 | 2,498 | 65.0% | 28.5% | 44.3% |
| LaLiga 2 | 3,334 | 63.6% | 26.8% | 42.8% |
| Total | 39,857 | 70.1% | 33.8% | 44.3% |
Source: football-data.co.uk, seasons 2018/19, 2019/20, 2021/22 through 2025/26, plus the matches played so far in 2026/27.
Sample: 39,857 matches from 16 European leagues with a half-time score.
Leagues: top two divisions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France, plus the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey.
Our own calculation.
The difference between leagues is large.
It runs from 63.6% in LaLiga 2 to 76.8% in the Bundesliga.
Do not use a general average for a league that sits far from it.
Always use the frequency of the competition you are going to bet on.
First-half over 0.5 and over 1.5
These are the most common first-half goal markets.
Over 0.5 needs at least one goal before the break.
Over 1.5 needs at least two.
| Market (1st half) | Real frequency | Equivalent fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 33.8% | 2.96 |
| Over 2.5 | 11.9% | 8.39 |
Source: football-data.co.uk, seasons 2018/19, 2019/20, 2021/22 through 2025/26, plus the matches played so far in 2026/27.
Sample: 39,857 matches from 16 European leagues with a half-time score.
Leagues: top two divisions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France, plus the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey.
Our own calculation.
Fair odds are 1 divided by the frequency: they are not real odds from any sportsbook.
If a sportsbook pays less than the fair odds, the price works against you.
If it pays more, there is a margin to analyze.
But the frequency is an average: your match may be different.
That is why it gets adjusted with match analysis.
Which half has more goals?
The second.
Teams get tired, substitutions happen and matches open up.
Of all goals, 44.3% fell in the first half and 55.7% in the second.
| Comparison | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 2nd half with more goals than the 1st | 44.4% |
| Same number of goals in both | 26.7% |
| 1st half with more goals | 28.9% |
| Matches with a goal in the 2nd half | 78.5% |
| Matches with 2 or more goals in the 2nd | 45.2% |
This does not mean the second half is always better.
It means that, on average, there are more goals after the break.
It is a reason not to overrate the first half.
How much of the final result is already decided at half-time?
Let us see what happens with the results at 45 minutes.
At the break, the home team was winning in 33.8% of matches, it was a draw in 41.3% and the away team was winning in 24.9%.
| At half-time | Home wins | Draw | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home leads | 77.4% | 15.8% | 6.8% |
| Draw | 35.7% | 38.2% | 26.1% |
| Away leads | 11.2% | 20.8% | 68.0% |
Rows: result at half-time.
Columns: final result.
Source: football-data.co.uk, seasons 2018/19, 2019/20, 2021/22 through 2025/26, plus the matches played so far in 2026/27.
Sample: 39,857 matches from 16 European leagues with a half-time score.
Leagues: top two divisions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France, plus the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey.
Our own calculation.
In 58.8% of matches, the final result matched the half-time result.
The team leading has an edge, but a draw at the break leaves everything open.
With the match level, the final outcome was home 35.7%, draw 38.2% and away 26.1%.
Half-time/full-time: the nine combinations
The half-time/full-time market asks you to get two things right at once.
The result at 45 minutes and the final result.
There are nine possible combinations.
| Half-time / Full-time | Real frequency | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Home / Home | 26.1% | Leads and wins |
| Draw / Home | 14.7% | Levels and wins it in the 2nd |
| Draw / Draw | 15.8% | No change |
| Draw / Away | 10.8% | Levels and the away team wins it |
| Away / Away | 16.9% | Leads and wins |
| Home / Draw | 5.3% | Lets the win slip |
| Away / Draw | 5.2% | Lets the win slip |
| Away / Home | 2.8% | Home comeback |
| Home / Away | 2.3% | Away comeback |
Source: football-data.co.uk, seasons 2018/19, 2019/20, 2021/22 through 2025/26, plus the matches played so far in 2026/27.
Sample: 39,857 matches from 16 European leagues with a half-time score.
Leagues: top two divisions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France, plus the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, Scotland and Turkey.
Our own calculation.
These are frequencies, not odds.
The rare combinations (comebacks) pay more because they are hard.
High odds are not a gift: they reflect that it almost never happens.
Before betting, compare the odds with the frequency in this table.
If the match is 0-0 at half-time
29.9% of matches had no first-half goals.
What happens in the second half?
In 75.7% of them there was at least one goal after the break.
| Matches 0-0 at half-time | Frequency |
|---|---|
| Ended in a draw | 38.5% |
| With at least 1 goal in the 2nd half | 75.7% |
| With 3 or more goals in the 2nd half | 16.9% |
A 0-0 at half-time usually points to a tight match.
But it does not stop it from opening up later.
If you bet live, this is the base for estimating a second-half goal.
Prompt to analyze a first-half market
Paste this prompt into your AI and replace what is in square brackets.
The more data you give it, the better the answer.
Act as a football analyst. Match: [HOME] vs [AWAY], league [LEAGUE], date [DATE]. Market: [over 0.5 / over 1.5 / result] in the first half. Odds offered: [ODDS]. Base frequency of the league for that market: [PERCENTAGE]. Data I am giving you: first-half goals of each team in their last [N] matches: [DATA]. Calculate: 1) my estimated probability, 2) the fair odds, 3) whether there is value against the odds offered. Do not invent data. If something is missing, ask me.
If the AI cannot see data about the match, you will have to give it the data yourself.
More on how to do that in AI for football betting.
Common mistakes with first-half markets
- Using the average of all leagues for a league that is far from it.
- Believing the first half “gets decided early”: the second has more goals.
- Ignoring that a low price on over 0.5 reflects a high frequency, not an easy bet.
- Betting live without having looked at the base frequency first.
- Confusing the first-half result with the final result of the match.
What to read next
For each team's goal markets, continue with team goals: over/under by team.
To choose where to bet, read the guides on odds comparison and line shopping.
The football baselines are in football statistics for betting and the markets in the best betting markets with AI.
For the full picture, the complete guide to AI for betting.
You can see our picks in the public record and in the Betting Journal.
Responsible gambling: betting is for adults over 18 only.
Only bet money you can afford to lose.
Frequently asked questions
What is a first-half bet?
It is a bet settled only on what happens in the first 45 minutes, plus stoppage time.
It works for the result, goals, both teams to score and other markets.
What happens after the break does not count.
What percentage of matches have a goal in the first half?
In our data, 70.1%.
It is our own calculation on 39,857 matches from 16 European leagues.
It ranges from 63.6% (LaLiga 2) to 76.8% (Bundesliga).
Are more goals scored in the first or the second half?
In the second.
The first half holds 44.3% of the goals and the second, 55.7%.
In 44.4% of matches the second half had more goals than the first.
Does a team that leads at half-time win the match?
Almost always, but not always.
A home team leading at the break wins 77.4% of the time and an away team, 68.0%.
A full comeback was rare: 6.8% and 11.2% respectively.
Is it worth betting on first-half over 0.5?
It depends on the price.
That it happens often does not mean there is value.
With a frequency of 70%, the fair odds would be about 1.43; if the sportsbook pays less, it is not worth it.
Compare it with your own estimate.
Do these data apply to other sports?
No.
The figures come from men's top-flight and second-tier European football.
Other competitions and other sports may have different frequencies.