🔮 Prediction for Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild – NHL (October 13)

Why this pick

The pick is C. Perfetti Under 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Cole Perfetti went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 2 of 12, averaging 1.67 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 10 of 12 (83%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 4, with 2 blanks in those 12.

Cole Perfetti's last 12 games

10 of 12 under 2.5

2.5

2vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 2-1 · 04/04

1vs Seattle Kraken · 6-2 · 04/06

1vs St. Louis Blues · 3-2 · 04/10

1vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1-7 · 04/11

0vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-6 · 04/14

1vs Utah Mammoth · 3-5 · 04/15

2vs San Jose Sharks · 1-6 · 04/17

4vs Boston Bruins · 3-4 · 10/03

2vs Detroit Red Wings · 3-2 · 10/04

4vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 3-2 · 10/05

2vs Colorado Avalanche · 3-2 · 10/07

0vs Anaheim Ducks · 1-5 · 10/10

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AI Pick for Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild – NHL

The pick is Cole Perfetti: Under 2.5 shots on goal at 1.95.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Cole Perfetti finishes below that number.

Cole Perfetti has been averaging 1.67 shots on goal over 12 games, and the book set the line at 2.5: 0.83 above that average.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 1.9 shots on goal, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.6 from the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 12 games, it would have won 10 times.

For odds of 1.95 to pay off you need to hit about 6.2 out of every 12: the Cole Perfetti record sits comfortably above that.

In his last 4 games he posted 0, 2, 4, 2 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 10 of 12 across the whole sample.

Within the sample, Cole Perfetti averages 1.67 shots on goal in his 6 home games, which is how he plays today.

A shots Under wants a tight game with limited minutes for him; its risk is the power play, where shots pile up fast.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Cole Perfetti clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Cole Perfetti doesn't play, the bet is voided.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.95 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.