🔮 Prediction for Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins – NHL (October 13)

Why this pick

The pick is R. Rakell Under 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Rickard Rakell went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 4 of 12, averaging 2.08 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 5, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Rickard Rakell's last 12 games

8 of 12 under 2.5

2.5

2vs Philadelphia Flyers · 2-3 · 04/19

1vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0-3 · 04/20

3vs Philadelphia Flyers · 2-5 · 04/22

1vs Philadelphia Flyers · 4-2 · 04/26

5vs Philadelphia Flyers · 3-2 · 04/27

4vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0-1 · 04/29

2vs Philadelphia Flyers · 7-0 · 09/30

2vs Montréal Canadiens · 6-5 · 10/03

1vs Winnipeg Jets · 2-3 · 10/05

3vs Washington Capitals · 3-5 · 10/07

0vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 2-3 · 10/09

1vs Dallas Stars · 2-1 · 10/10

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AI Pick for Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins – NHL

The play is Rickard Rakell Under 2.5 shots on goal at 1.91.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Rickard Rakell has been averaging 2.08 shots on goal over 12 games, and the book set the line at 2.5: 0.42 above that average.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 1.7, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 0.8 below the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 12 games.

Is it enough? At 1.91 you need to win roughly 6.3 out of every 12 just to break even, and Rickard Rakell has been well above that bar.

In his last 4 games he posted 1, 0, 3, 1 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 8 of 12 across the whole sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 1.44 from his average, and the line sits 0.3 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 2.17 over 6 games.

The shots-on-goal Under wants a clogged game with little ice time for Rickard Rakell; what threatens it most are power plays, where shots come fast and often.

The AI doesn't bet on hunches: it takes the real Rickard Rakell series, checks it against what the market as a whole expects for this line, and only when the best available price sits above that estimate does it publish the pick.

A rule to keep in mind: without Rickard Rakell in the game, the bet is void.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 1.91; below that it shrinks, above it grows.