🔮 Prediction for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts – NFL (October 11)

Why this pick

The pick is T. Warren Under 48.5 receiving yds. Over his last 10 games, Tyler Warren went over the line of 48.5 receiving yds in 2 of 10, averaging 25.2 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 10 (80%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 49, with 1 blanks in those 10.

Tyler Warren's last 10 games

8 of 10 under 48.5

48.5

49vs Baltimore Ravens · 27-22 · 12/07

15vs Miami Dolphins · 28-15 · 12/16

8vs Detroit Lions · 29-24 · 12/21

0vs Cleveland Browns · 6-13 · 12/28

33vs Baltimore Ravens · 26-24 · 01/05

4vs Houston Texans · 6-30 · 01/13

27vs Atlanta Falcons · 20-13 · 09/13

34vs New England Patriots · 3-20 · 09/20

49vs Cincinnati Bengals · 30-27 · 09/27

33vs Cleveland Browns · 24-27 · 10/02

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AI Pick for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts – NFL

The play is Tyler Warren Under 48.5 receiving yards at 1.87.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Tyler Warren has been averaging 25.2 receiving yards over 10 games, and the book set the line at 48.5: 23.3 above that average.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 33, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 15.5 below the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 10 games.

Is it enough? At 1.87 you need to win roughly 5.3 out of every 10 just to break even, and Tyler Warren has been well above that bar.

His last 4 games (33, 49, 34, 27, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 17.7 from his average, and the line sits 1.3 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

Within the sample, Tyler Warren averages 25.6 receiving yards in his 5 home games, which is how he plays today.

One play can kill a receiving-yards Under: a single deep catch can eat half the line at once.

It helps if his team is ahead and running the ball to burn the clock.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Tyler Warren clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

The concrete risk: a single big play that swallows the line, or a script that hands him far more volume than usual.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.87 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.