🔮 Prediction for New York Rangers vs Utah Mammoth – NHL (October 4)

Why this pick

The pick is D. Guenther Over 2.5 shots. Over his last 11 games, Dylan Guenther went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of 11, averaging 3.91 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 11 (73%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 7.

Dylan Guenther's last 11 games

8 of 11 over 2.5

2.5

4vs Carolina Hurricanes · 1-4 · 04/11

1vs Calgary Flames · 1-4 · 04/13

1vs Winnipeg Jets · 5-3 · 04/15

4vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-4 · 04/20

5vs Vegas Golden Knights · 3-2 · 04/22

4vs Vegas Golden Knights · 4-2 · 04/25

7vs Vegas Golden Knights · 4-5 · 04/28

6vs Vegas Golden Knights · 4-5 · 04/30

1vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1-5 · 05/02

5vs Chicago Blackhawks · 6-0 · 10/02

5vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 4-1 · 10/03

Recent winning player props

• Carolina Hurricanes vs Vancouver Canucks ✓ Won
• Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins ✓ Won
• New York Rangers vs New York Islanders ✓ Won

AI Pick for New York Rangers vs Utah Mammoth – NHL

Dylan Guenther Over 2.5 shots on goal (Utah Mammoth), at 1.71.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Dylan Guenther stat line when it's over.

First fact: the line of 2.5 sits 1.41 below what Dylan Guenther produces on average, 3.91 shots on goal per game over the last 11.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 4.4 shots on goal, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 1.9 from the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 11 games, it would have won 8 times.

For odds of 1.71 to pay off you need to hit about 6.4 out of every 11: the Dylan Guenther record sits comfortably above that.

His last 4 games (5, 5, 1, 6, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 2.07 from his average, and the line sits 0.7 of those deviations away.

Within the sample, Dylan Guenther averages 4.2 shots on goal in his 5 road games, which is how he plays today.

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Dylan Guenther clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rule to keep in mind: without Dylan Guenther in the game, the bet is void.