🔮 Prediction for Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts – NFL (October 4)

Why this pick

The pick is J. Taylor Under 89.5 rushing yds. Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Taylor went over the line of 89.5 rushing yds in 2 of 10, averaging 70.4 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 10 (80%).

Across the sample his range runs from 26 to 98.

Jonathan Taylor's last 10 games

8 of 10 under 89.5

89.5

58vs Kansas City Chiefs · 20-23 · 11/23

85vs Houston Texans · 16-20 · 11/30

74vs Jacksonville Jaguars · 19-36 · 12/07

87vs Seattle Seahawks · 16-18 · 12/14

46vs San Francisco 49ers · 27-48 · 12/23

70vs Jacksonville Jaguars · 17-23 · 12/28

26vs Houston Texans · 30-38 · 01/04

98vs Baltimore Ravens · 23-41 · 09/13

92vs Kansas City Chiefs · 30-33 · 09/21

68vs Houston Texans · 19-17 · 09/27

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AI Pick for Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts – NFL

The play is Jonathan Taylor Under 89.5 rushing yards at 2.00.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Over his last 10 games he averages 70.4 rushing yards, 19.1 below the line: the typical Jonathan Taylor number is already on the pick's side.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 73.9, practically the same as the plain average, 15.6 below the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 10 games, it would have won 8 times.

For odds of 2.00 to pay off you need to hit about 5 out of every 10: the Jonathan Taylor record sits comfortably above that.

A word on form: 68, 92, 98, 26 in his last 4 games, with 2 of 4 on the pick's side, fewer than across the full sample (8 of 10).

Since the model weights recent games more, that run is already inside its projection.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 22.25 rushing yards: a consistent player who rarely goes off script, and the line sits 0.9 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 67.4 per game over 5 games.

A single long run, designed or improvised, can break a rushing-yards Under.

It wants a game with few runs for Jonathan Taylor, which depends on a game script nobody can guarantee.

The AI doesn't bet on hunches: it takes the real Jonathan Taylor series, checks it against what the market as a whole expects for this line, and only when the best available price sits above that estimate does it publish the pick.