🔮 Prediction for Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans – NFL (October 4)

Why this pick

The pick is T. Pollard Over 46.5 rushing yds. Over his last 9 games, Tony Pollard went over the line of 46.5 rushing yds in 7 of 9, averaging 74.22 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 7 of 9 (78%).

Across the sample his range runs from 20 to 161.

Tony Pollard's last 9 games

7 of 9 over 46.5

46.5

20vs Seattle Seahawks · 24-30 · 11/23

60vs Jacksonville Jaguars · 3-25 · 11/30

161vs Cleveland Browns · 31-29 · 12/07

104vs San Francisco 49ers · 24-37 · 12/14

102vs Kansas City Chiefs · 26-9 · 12/21

48vs Jacksonville Jaguars · 7-41 · 01/04

35vs New York Jets · 10-23 · 09/13

64vs Philadelphia Eagles · 20-24 · 09/20

74vs New York Giants · 7-12 · 09/27

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AI Pick for Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans – NFL

The play is Tony Pollard Over 46.5 rushing yards at 1.88.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

First fact: the line of 46.5 sits 27.72 below what Tony Pollard produces on average, 74.22 rushing yards per game over the last 9.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 67.8, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 21.3 above the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 7 of the last 9 games, Tony Pollard finished on the pick's side.

At 1.88, break-even means hitting about 4.8 out of every 9; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

His last 4 games (74, 64, 35, 48, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 42.81 rushing yards: a normal spread, and the line sits 0.6 deviations from his average.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 96.75 over 4 games, a bit above his norm.

Tony Pollard's rushing yards depend on how many chances to run he gets and how much each one gains.

It's a number that swings with how the game unfolds: the model doesn't guess the script, it leans on what he has been producing.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Tony Pollard frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.