🔮 Prediction for Minnesota Wild vs Boston Bruins – NHL (October 3)

Why this pick

The pick is M. Boldy Over 3.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Matt Boldy went over the line of 3.5 shots on goal in 9 of 12, averaging 4.42 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 8.

Matt Boldy's last 12 games

9 of 12 over 3.5

3.5

8vs Dallas Stars · 6-1 · 04/18

5vs Dallas Stars · 2-4 · 04/21

4vs Dallas Stars · 3-4 · 04/23

4vs Dallas Stars · 3-2 · 04/25

7vs Dallas Stars · 4-2 · 04/29

5vs Dallas Stars · 5-2 · 04/30

3vs Colorado Avalanche · 6-9 · 05/04

1vs Colorado Avalanche · 2-5 · 05/06

5vs Colorado Avalanche · 5-1 · 05/10

1vs Colorado Avalanche · 2-5 · 05/12

5vs Colorado Avalanche · 3-4 · 05/14

5vs Nashville Predators · 3-1 · 10/02

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AI Pick for Minnesota Wild vs Boston Bruins – NHL

For this matchup the AI picked a prop: Matt Boldy, Over 3.5 shots on goal, at 2.06.

The final score changes nothing; all that counts is what Matt Boldy does.

The starting point is his average: 4.42 per game over the last 12, against a line of 3.5.

That's a 0.92 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 4.1 shots on goal, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.6 from the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 9 of his last 12 games.

Is it enough? At 2.06 you need to win roughly 5.8 out of every 12 just to break even, and Matt Boldy has been well above that bar.

In his last 4 games he posted 5, 5, 1, 5 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 9 of 12 across the whole sample.

With a standard deviation of 2.07 across these 12 games, Matt Boldy's output varies a normal amount: the line is 0.4 deviations from his average.

Within the sample, Matt Boldy averages 3.8 shots on goal in his 5 home games, which is how he plays today.

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Matt Boldy frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.

A rules detail: if Matt Boldy doesn't play, the bet is voided.