🔮 Prediction for Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings – NHL (October 26)

Why this pick

The pick is C. McDavid Over 1.5 points. Over his last 12 games, Connor McDavid went over the line of 1.5 points in 9 of 12, averaging 2.75 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 5, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Connor McDavid's last 12 games

9 of 12 over 1.5

1.5

0vs Anaheim Ducks · 2-5 · 05/01

2vs Vancouver Canucks · 5-6 · 09/30

5vs Vancouver Canucks · 9-7 · 10/02

2vs Seattle Kraken · 3-1 · 10/03

3vs Anaheim Ducks · 5-2 · 10/08

1vs San Jose Sharks · 3-1 · 10/10

4vs Los Angeles Kings · 4-1 · 10/14

1vs Utah Mammoth · 2-4 · 10/16

5vs Utah Mammoth · 6-2 · 10/18

3vs Minnesota Wild · 4-3 · 10/21

5vs Carolina Hurricanes · 6-5 · 10/23

2vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 2-7 · 10/24

Recent winning player props

• Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild ✓ Won
• Winnipeg Jets vs Montréal Canadiens ✓ Won
• Boston Bruins vs San Jose Sharks ✓ Won

AI Pick for Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings – NHL

The pick is Connor McDavid: Over 1.5 points at 1.72.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Connor McDavid finishes above that number.

Connor McDavid has been averaging 2.75 points over 12 games, and the book set the line at 1.5: 1.25 below that average.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 3 points, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 1.5 from the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 9 of his last 12 games.

For odds of 1.72 to pay off you need to hit about 7 out of every 12: the Connor McDavid record sits comfortably above that.

In his last 4 games he posted 2, 5, 3, 5 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 9 of 12 across the whole sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 1.71 points: a boom-or-bust player, capable of games far above and far below his average, and the line sits 0.7 deviations from his average.

He plays at home today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 2.5 over 6 games.

The Detroit Red Wings defense: 3.2 goals allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 3.22 (rank 21 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

In the NHL a point is a goal or an assist: every involvement in one of his team's goals counts.

So the Over depends as much on him as on his line producing goals.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Connor McDavid clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Connor McDavid doesn't play, the bet is voided.

The concrete risk: less ice time than expected, or an opponent that closes the gaps and lowers the volume for his whole team.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 1.72; below that it shrinks, above it grows.