🔮 Prediction for Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning – NHL (October 24)

Why this pick

The pick is A. Cirelli Under 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Anthony Cirelli went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 3 of 12, averaging 1.17 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 4, with 4 blanks in those 12.

Anthony Cirelli's last 12 games

9 of 12 under 1.5

1.5

0vs Montréal Canadiens · 1-0 · 05/01

0vs Montréal Canadiens · 1-2 · 05/03

3vs New York Rangers · 1-5 · 10/01

1vs Washington Capitals · 3-1 · 10/03

1vs Philadelphia Flyers · 4-1 · 10/05

4vs Minnesota Wild · 3-2 · 10/08

0vs New York Islanders · 5-3 · 10/10

1vs New York Rangers · 1-4 · 10/13

0vs Seattle Kraken · 4-3 · 10/15

1vs Vancouver Canucks · 4-2 · 10/17

2vs Vegas Golden Knights · 6-2 · 10/21

1vs Colorado Avalanche · 3-6 · 10/24

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AI Pick for Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning – NHL

The play is Anthony Cirelli Under 1.5 shots on goal at 1.83.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

The starting point is his average: 1.17 per game over the last 12, against a line of 1.5.

That's a 0.33 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 1.2, practically the same as the plain average, 0.3 below the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 9 of the last 12 games, Anthony Cirelli finished on the pick's side.

At 1.83, break-even means hitting about 6.6 out of every 12; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

His last 4 games (1, 2, 1, 0, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

Within the sample, Anthony Cirelli averages 1.17 shots on goal in his 6 road games, which is how he plays today.

The Utah Mammoth defense: 23.5 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.4 (rank 30 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

The shots-on-goal Under wants a clogged game with little ice time for Anthony Cirelli; what threatens it most are power plays, where shots come fast and often.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Anthony Cirelli clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

If Anthony Cirelli ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.83 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.