🔮 Prediction for Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets – NHL (October 22)

Why this pick

The pick is T. Seguin Over 1.5 shots. Over his last 9 games, Tyler Seguin went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 7 of 9, averaging 2.67 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 7 of 9 (78%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 7, with 1 blanks in those 9.

Tyler Seguin's last 9 games

7 of 9 over 1.5

1.5

4vs St. Louis Blues · 0-4 · 10/03

3vs Nashville Predators · 1-2 · 10/04

2vs San Jose Sharks · 5-0 · 10/06

0vs Buffalo Sabres · 4-0 · 10/08

2vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1-2 · 10/10

7vs Colorado Avalanche · 2-3 · 10/14

3vs Colorado Avalanche · 3-2 · 10/15

2vs Chicago Blackhawks · 4-0 · 10/17

1vs Boston Bruins · 3-2 · 10/21

Recent winning player props

• Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils ✓ Won
• Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins ✓ Won
• Chicago Blackhawks vs Winnipeg Jets ✓ Won

AI Pick for Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets – NHL

Tyler Seguin Over 1.5 shots on goal (Dallas Stars), at 2.00.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Tyler Seguin stat line when it's over.

Over his last 9 games he averages 2.67 shots on goal, 1.17 above the line: the typical Tyler Seguin number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 2.5 shots on goal, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it; it also sits on the pick's side, 1 from the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 7 of his last 9 games.

At 2.00, break-even means hitting about 4.5 out of every 9; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

In his last 4 games he posted 1, 2, 3, 7 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 7 of 9 across the whole sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 2 from his average, and the line sits 0.6 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

Today's setting counts too: at home, in the sample, he's at 3.5 per game over 4 games.

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Tyler Seguin clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Tyler Seguin doesn't play, the bet is voided.

The concrete risk: less ice time than expected, or an opponent that closes the gaps and lowers the volume for his whole team.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 2.00; below that it shrinks, above it grows.