🔮 Prediction for Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks – NBA (October 24)

Why this pick

The pick is J. Jaquez Jr Over 13.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Jaime Jaquez Jr went over the line of 13.5 points in 17 of 20, averaging 16.3 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 17 of 20 (85%).

Across the sample his range runs from 5 to 32.

Jaime Jaquez Jr's last 20 games

14 of 20 over 13.5

13.5

18vs Brooklyn Nets · 03/06

21vs Charlotte Hornets · 03/07

19vs Detroit Pistons · 03/08

5vs Washington Wizards · 03/10

6vs Milwaukee Bucks · 03/12

22vs Orlando Magic · 03/15

6vs Charlotte Hornets · 03/17

8vs San Antonio Spurs · 03/23

14vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 03/25

20vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 03/27

17vs Indiana Pacers · 03/29

14vs Philadelphia 76ers · 03/30

17vs Boston Celtics · 04/01

32vs Washington Wizards · 04/04

8vs Toronto Raptors · 04/07

15vs Toronto Raptors · 04/09

23vs Washington Wizards · 04/10

26vs Atlanta Hawks · 04/12

13vs Charlotte Hornets · 04/14

22vs Washington Wizards · 10/21

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AI Pick for Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks – NBA

The play is Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 13.5 points at 1.95.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Over his last 20 games he averages 16.3 points, 2.8 above the line: the typical Jaime Jaquez Jr number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 17.5 points, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 4 from the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 14 of the last 20 games, Jaime Jaquez Jr finished on the pick's side.

For odds of 1.95 to pay off you need to hit about 10.3 out of every 20: the Jaime Jaquez Jr record sits comfortably above that.

The latest games don't change the picture: 22, 13, 26, 23 in the last 4, 3 of 4 on the pick's side, a similar rate to the full sample.

With a standard deviation of 7.25 across these 20 games, Jaime Jaquez Jr's output varies a normal amount: the line is 0.4 deviations from his average.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 15.9 over 10 games.

Against Philadelphia 76ers, today's opponent, he posted 14 in the sample.

For the points Over, volume rules: minutes on the floor, shots taken and trips to the free-throw line.

A fast pace and an opponent that defends poorly work in his favour.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Jaime Jaquez Jr actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

If Jaime Jaquez Jr ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.

What can go wrong: a blowout that sends the starters to the bench before the fourth quarter, an injury during the game or a cut in minutes.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.95 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.