🔮 Prediction for Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers – NBA (October 25)

Why this pick

The pick is A. Bailey Over 10.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Ace Bailey went over the line of 10.5 points in 21 of 20, averaging 18 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 21 of 20 (105%).

Across the sample his range runs from 6 to 37.

Ace Bailey's last 20 games

17 of 20 over 10.5

10.5

12vs Philadelphia 76ers · 03/05

32vs Washington Wizards · 03/06

9vs Milwaukee Bucks · 03/08

21vs New York Knicks · 03/12

8vs Portland Trail Blazers · 03/14

17vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 03/19

33vs Milwaukee Bucks · 03/20

25vs Philadelphia 76ers · 03/22

37vs Toronto Raptors · 03/24

15vs Washington Wizards · 03/26

15vs Denver Nuggets · 03/28

13vs Phoenix Suns · 03/29

19vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 03/31

12vs Denver Nuggets · 04/02

22vs Houston Rockets · 04/04

14vs Oklahoma City Thunder · 04/05

23vs Memphis Grizzlies · 04/11

15vs Los Angeles Lakers · 04/13

12vs Memphis Grizzlies · 10/22

6vs New Orleans Pelicans · 10/24

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AI Pick for Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers – NBA

Ace Bailey Over 10.5 points (Utah Jazz), at 1.83.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Ace Bailey stat line when it's over.

Over his last 20 games he averages 18 points, 7.5 above the line: the typical Ace Bailey number is already on the pick's side.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 16.3, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 5.8 above the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 20 games, it would have won 17 times.

Is it enough? At 1.83 you need to win roughly 10.9 out of every 20 just to break even, and Ace Bailey has been well above that bar.

In his last 4 games he posted 6, 12, 15, 23 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 17 of 20 across the whole sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 8.53 points: a normal spread, and the line sits 0.9 deviations from his average.

Within the sample, Ace Bailey averages 21.22 points in his 9 home games, which is how he plays today.

Against Los Angeles Lakers, today's opponent, he posted 15 in the sample.

For the points Over, volume rules: minutes on the floor, shots taken and trips to the free-throw line.

A fast pace and an opponent that defends poorly work in his favour.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Ace Bailey frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.

A rules detail: if Ace Bailey doesn't play, the bet is voided.

The concrete risk: the game is settled early and Ace Bailey plays less than usual.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 1.83; below that it shrinks, above it grows.