🔮 Prediction for San Jose Sharks vs Boston Bruins – NHL (October 14)

Why this pick

The pick is W. Smith Under 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Will Smith went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 3 of 12, averaging 1.75 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 5, with 3 blanks in those 12.

Will Smith's last 12 games

9 of 12 under 2.5

2.5

2vs Chicago Blackhawks · 3-2 · 04/07

1vs Edmonton Oilers · 2-5 · 04/09

0vs Anaheim Ducks · 1-6 · 04/10

4vs Vancouver Canucks · 3-4 · 04/12

2vs Nashville Predators · 3-2 · 04/14

0vs Chicago Blackhawks · 2-5 · 04/16

5vs Winnipeg Jets · 6-1 · 04/17

3vs Florida Panthers · 4-3 · 10/02

2vs Los Angeles Kings · 5-4 · 10/04

0vs Dallas Stars · 0-5 · 10/06

1vs St. Louis Blues · 3-2 · 10/09

1vs Edmonton Oilers · 1-3 · 10/10

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AI Pick for San Jose Sharks vs Boston Bruins – NHL

The play is Will Smith Under 2.5 shots on goal at 1.74.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

Over his last 12 games he averages 1.75 shots on goal, 0.75 below the line: the typical Will Smith number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 1.5 shots on goal, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it; it also sits on the pick's side, 1 from the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 9 of the last 12 games, Will Smith finished on the pick's side.

At 1.74, break-even means hitting about 6.9 out of every 12; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

In his last 4 games he posted 1, 1, 0, 2 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 9 of 12 across the whole sample.

Within the sample, Will Smith averages 2.17 shots on goal in his 6 home games, which is how he plays today.

The shots-on-goal Under wants a clogged game with little ice time for Will Smith; what threatens it most are power plays, where shots come fast and often.

The AI doesn't bet on hunches: it takes the real Will Smith series, checks it against what the market as a whole expects for this line, and only when the best available price sits above that estimate does it publish the pick.

A rule to keep in mind: without Will Smith in the game, the bet is void.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.74 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.