🔮 Prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Utah Mammoth with AI | NHL 🏒

Why this pick

The pick is B. Hayton Over 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Barrett Hayton went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of 12, averaging 2.08 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 3.

Barrett Hayton's last 12 games

8 of 12 over 1.5

1.5

1vs New York Rangers · 2-4 · 10/04

2vs New Jersey Devils · 5-3 · 10/06

3vs Boston Bruins · 1-6 · 10/08

1vs Buffalo Sabres · 4-1 · 10/10

2vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 5-4 · 10/14

1vs Edmonton Oilers · 4-2 · 10/16

1vs Edmonton Oilers · 2-6 · 10/18

2vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 5-4 · 10/20

3vs Seattle Kraken · 3-5 · 10/23

3vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 5-4 · 10/25

3vs Minnesota Wild · 1-3 · 10/28

3vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 4-3 · 10/29

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AI Pick for Philadelphia Flyers vs Utah Mammoth – NHL

The play is Barrett Hayton Over 1.5 shots on goal at 1.87.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

First fact: the line of 1.5 sits 0.58 below what Barrett Hayton produces on average, 2.08 shots on goal per game over the last 12.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 2.4 shots on goal, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.9 from the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 12 games.

Is it enough? At 1.87 you need to win roughly 6.4 out of every 12 just to break even, and Barrett Hayton has been well above that bar.

Recent form backs it: 3, 3, 3, 3 in the last 4, with 4 of 4 on the pick's side, above the rate for the full sample (8 of 12).

In the sample, his standard deviation is 0.9 shots on goal: a normal spread, and the line sits 0.6 deviations from his average.

Within the sample, Barrett Hayton averages 2 shots on goal in his 7 road games, which is how he plays today.

The Philadelphia Flyers defense: 27 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.42 (rank 19 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

In hockey, shots on goal are a question of minutes: the more time Barrett Hayton spends on the ice, especially on the power play, the more chances he has to add up.

If his team has to chase the game, volume usually climbs.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Barrett Hayton clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

If Barrett Hayton ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.

The concrete risk: less ice time than expected, or an opponent that closes the gaps and lowers the volume for his whole team.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 1.87; below that it shrinks, above it grows.