🔮 Prediction for Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils – NHL (October 28)

Why this pick

The pick is G. Landeskog Under 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Gabriel Landeskog went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 4 of 12, averaging 1.25 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 3, with 3 blanks in those 12.

Gabriel Landeskog's last 12 games

8 of 12 under 1.5

1.5

1vs Los Angeles Kings · 8-4 · 10/01

0vs St. Louis Blues · 6-1 · 10/04

3vs Winnipeg Jets · 2-3 · 10/07

1vs Calgary Flames · 7-3 · 10/09

2vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 3-6 · 10/10

1vs Dallas Stars · 3-2 · 10/14

2vs Dallas Stars · 2-3 · 10/15

1vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 5-2 · 10/17

0vs Philadelphia Flyers · 2-3 · 10/19

3vs New Jersey Devils · 3-4 · 10/20

1vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 6-3 · 10/24

0vs Nashville Predators · 2-6 · 10/26

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AI Pick for Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils – NHL

The pick is Gabriel Landeskog: Under 1.5 shots on goal at 2.05.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Gabriel Landeskog finishes below that number.

Over his last 12 games he averages 1.25 shots on goal, 0.25 below the line: the typical Gabriel Landeskog number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 1.2 shots on goal, practically the same as the plain average; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.3 from the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 12 games.

Is it enough? At 2.05 you need to win roughly 5.9 out of every 12 just to break even, and Gabriel Landeskog has been well above that bar.

The latest games don't change the picture: 0, 1, 3, 0 in the last 4, 3 of 4 on the pick's side, a similar rate to the full sample.

Today's setting counts too: at home, in the sample, he's at 1.17 per game over 6 games.

He has already faced New Jersey Devils within the sample: 3 shots on goal in that game.

New Jersey Devils allow 22.4 shots on goal per game over their last 10 (league average: 27.39); that ranks 30 of 32 among the teams that give up the most.

A shots Under wants a tight game with limited minutes for him; its risk is the power play, where shots pile up fast.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Gabriel Landeskog actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

A rule to keep in mind: without Gabriel Landeskog in the game, the bet is void.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

One last practical note: 2.05 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.