American football
NCAAF winner
Reference: consensus of 5 bookmakers
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 15.2% | 6.00 | = |
| 2Ohio State Buckeyes | 14.8% | 6.00 | ▼ -2.8 |
| 3Georgia Bulldogs | 14.6% | 6.00 | = |
| 4Miami Hurricanes | 11.5% | 8.00 | ▲ +1.4 |
| 5Indiana Hoosiers | 8.6% | 12.00 | ▲ +1.5 |
| 6Alabama Crimson Tide | 5.9% | 15.00 | ▼ -1.8 |
| 7Ole Miss Rebels | 4.6% | 19.00 | ▲ +2.0 |
| 8Texas Longhorns | 4.0% | 23.00 | ▼ -4.0 |
| 9LSU Tigers | 3.7% | 24.00 | ▲ +0.9 |
| 10BYU Cougars | 1.7% | 46.00 | – |
NFL Super Bowl winner
Reference: Pinnacle
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Francisco 49ers | 14.7% | 7.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 2Kansas City Chiefs | 10.4% | 10.00 | ▲ +1.6 |
| 3Buffalo Bills | 10.3% | 16.00 | ▲ +0.6 |
| 4Baltimore Ravens | 7.4% | 13.00 | ▼ -0.8 |
| 5Los Angeles Rams | 6.3% | 13.18 | ▼ -4.1 |
| 6Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.1% | 15.00 | ▼ -0.6 |
| 7Seattle Seahawks | 5.8% | 17.00 | ▼ -0.9 |
| 8New England Patriots | 4.5% | 23.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 9Chicago Bears | 4.2% | 19.26 | – |
| 10Minnesota Vikings | 4.2% | 21.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
Basketball
NBA winner
Reference: Pinnacle
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oklahoma City Thunder | 24.1% | 4.00 | ▲ +0.8 |
| 2San Antonio Spurs | 23.4% | 4.25 | ▲ +0.5 |
| 3Philadelphia 76ers | 8.8% | 11.00 | ▼ -1.1 |
| 4New York Knicks | 7.8% | 11.00 | ▲ +0.4 |
| 5Boston Celtics | 5.4% | 17.00 | ▲ +0.2 |
| 6Cleveland Cavaliers | 3.0% | 34.00 | ▲ +0.2 |
| 7Denver Nuggets | 3.0% | 34.00 | = |
| 8Minnesota Timberwolves | 3.0% | 28.00 | = |
| 9Toronto Raptors | 2.9% | 26.00 | ▲ +0.3 |
| 10Detroit Pistons | 2.7% | 36.00 | – |
Ice hockey
NHL winner
Reference: Pinnacle
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colorado Avalanche | 10.3% | 8.41 | ▼ -0.9 |
| 2Carolina Hurricanes | 9.3% | 9.20 | ▼ -0.9 |
| 3Tampa Bay Lightning | 8.7% | 15.00 | ▼ -0.7 |
| 4Florida Panthers | 8.6% | 10.00 | ▼ -0.7 |
| 5Edmonton Oilers | 8.5% | 11.00 | ▼ -0.7 |
| 6Vegas Golden Knights | 8.0% | 13.00 | ▼ -0.7 |
| 7Montréal Canadiens | 5.6% | 31.00 | – |
| 8Minnesota Wild | 5.5% | 17.00 | ▲ +1.0 |
| 9Dallas Stars | 5.2% | 23.00 | ▼ -0.5 |
| 10Washington Capitals | 5.0% | 17.00 | ▼ -0.5 |
Golf
Masters Tournament winner
Reference: consensus of 9 bookmakers
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Scottie Scheffler | 12.7% | 5.50 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 2Rory McIlroy | 7.4% | 11.50 | ▲ +0.2 |
| 3Jon Rahm | 3.6% | 21.00 | = |
| 4Collin Morikawa | 3.6% | 29.00 | = |
| 5Cameron Young | 2.8% | 21.00 | = |
| 6Ludvig Aberg | 2.7% | 21.00 | = |
| 7Bryson DeChambeau | 2.7% | 26.00 | = |
| 8Xander Schauffele | 2.6% | 23.00 | = |
| 9Carlos Ortiz | 2.6% | 251.00 | = |
| 10Viktor Hovland | 2.6% | 51.00 | – |
PGA winner
Reference: consensus of 5 bookmakers
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Scottie Scheffler | 15.8% | 5.50 | ▲ +0.2 |
| 2Rory McIlroy | 8.5% | 11.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 3Jon Rahm | 5.3% | 21.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 4Xander Schauffele | 4.4% | 23.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 5Ludvig Aberg | 4.3% | 19.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 6Cameron Young | 4.1% | 23.00 | = |
| 7Bryson DeChambeau | 2.8% | 41.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 8Tommy Fleetwood | 2.7% | 29.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 9Matthew Fitzpatrick | 2.5% | 34.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 10Collin Morikawa | 2.3% | 36.00 | – |
The Open winner
Reference: consensus of 3 bookmakers
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Scottie Scheffler | 13.0% | 7.00 | = |
| 2Rory McIlroy | 8.5% | 11.00 | = |
| 3Jon Rahm | 4.3% | 21.00 | = |
| 4Tommy Fleetwood | 4.0% | 21.00 | = |
| 5Xander Schauffele | 3.4% | 26.00 | = |
| 6Matthew Fitzpatrick | 3.3% | 26.00 | = |
| 7Cameron Young | 3.2% | 26.00 | = |
| 8Ludvig Aberg | 3.2% | 26.00 | = |
| 9Tyrrell Hatton | 2.6% | 34.00 | = |
| 10Wyndham Clark | 2.4% | 41.00 | = |
US Open winner
Reference: consensus of 5 bookmakers
| Contender | Probability | Best odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Scottie Scheffler | 15.3% | 6.00 | ▲ +0.3 |
| 2Rory McIlroy | 8.3% | 12.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 3Jon Rahm | 5.0% | 21.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 4Xander Schauffele | 4.1% | 23.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 5Ludvig Aberg | 3.6% | 23.00 | = |
| 6Tommy Fleetwood | 3.6% | 23.00 | = |
| 7Matthew Fitzpatrick | 3.1% | 26.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 8Cameron Young | 3.0% | 26.00 | ▲ +0.1 |
| 9Bryson DeChambeau | 2.7% | 34.00 | ▼ -0.1 |
| 10Wyndham Clark | 2.6% | 34.00 | = |
How it is calculated
- Bookmakers charge a margin: add up what they pay on every contender and the implied probability is above 100%. We remove it, and what is left adds up to 100%.
- The probability is Pinnacle’s —the bookmaker with the lowest margin— when it prices the full list; otherwise the average of the bookmakers that list it (at least 3).
- The best odds are the highest among all bookmakers at the time of the reading, and they move. The change is the difference in points against the previous reading.
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is a margin-free probability?
A bookmaker’s odds include its profit (the margin). Take it out and what is left is the probability that bookmaker really assigns to each contender, and they all add up to 100%.
Why Pinnacle?
Because it charges the lowest margin and accepts winning bettors, so its price is the best public reference. If it does not price a tournament, we use the average of at least 3 bookmakers.
How often is it updated?
The monthly edition is published on the 1st and refreshed every 7 days (the 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th). The date of the latest reading is shown above.
Is this betting advice?
No. It is information: it shows what the market thinks, not what will happen. Favourites lose too. Only bet if you are 18 or older and never more than you can afford to lose.