What Polymarket does
Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market: each outcome is a share priced between 1 and 99 cents, and that price is the probability the crowd gives it. It runs on USDC on Polygon and, for sports, covers everything from the Champions League winner to single matches. We explain it in what is Polymarket.
MetLife Stadium, Argentina v Canada, Copa América 2024. Big events concentrate prediction-market volume. Photo: Sebas — CC BY 3.0 (Wikimedia Commons).
What it lacks
- It is blocked or restricted in several countries, including Argentina, Brazil and, temporarily, Spain.
- It requires crypto and a wallet; for many that is a barrier.
- Its price is a collective opinion, not a data model: it doesn't explain why, and suggests no stake.
Polymarket vs the alternative
| Polymarket | gambeta.ai | |
|---|---|---|
| Source of the probability | Market price | Data model |
| Availability | Blocked in AR, BR, ES and others | All countries |
| Needs crypto | Yes | No |
| Minimum odds and stake | No | Yes |
| Price | Small fees | Free |
When to look at Polymarket anyway
As a thermometer: comparing the market price with the model's probability shows where the crowd and the data disagree. That contrast is useful even if you can't trade there.
The AI also predicts basketball: NBA, EuroLeague and ACB.
How to try the alternative
The AI predictions carry probability, minimum odds and stake for football, tennis, baseball and basketball. Compare with your usual bookmaker and that's it. No wallet, no blocks.
See today's AI probabilities →
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in Argentina, Brazil or Spain?
In 2026 it is blocked in Argentina and Brazil and temporarily blocked in Spain. Rules change: check your local regulator.
Is the alternative a bookmaker?
No. It publishes predictions with probability; you place the bet at the bookmaker you use.
Do I need crypto?
No. Gambeta is free and needs no wallet.