🔮 Prediction for Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic – NBA (October 28)

Why this pick

The pick is F. Wagner Under 36.5 points+rebounds+assists. Over his last 20 games, Franz Wagner went over the line of 36.5 points+rebounds+assists in 2 of 20, averaging 24.05 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 18 of 20 (90%).

Across the sample his range runs from 8 to 45.

Franz Wagner's last 20 games

19 of 20 under 36.5

36.5

11vs New York Knicks · 12/07

29vs Memphis Grizzlies · 01/15

21vs Memphis Grizzlies · 01/18

21vs Milwaukee Bucks · 02/10

8vs Milwaukee Bucks · 02/12

15vs Atlanta Hawks · 04/01

23vs Dallas Mavericks · 04/04

18vs New Orleans Pelicans · 04/05

19vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 04/08

31vs Chicago Bulls · 04/11

25vs Boston Celtics · 04/12

19vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/15

31vs Charlotte Hornets · 04/17

28vs Detroit Pistons · 04/19

20vs Detroit Pistons · 04/22

28vs Detroit Pistons · 04/25

27vs Detroit Pistons · 04/28

33vs Atlanta Hawks · 10/21

29vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 10/23

45vs New York Knicks · 10/25

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AI Pick for Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic – NBA

Franz Wagner Under 36.5 points + rebounds + assists (Orlando Magic), at 1.87.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Franz Wagner stat line when it's over.

The starting point is his average: 24.05 per game over the last 20, against a line of 36.5.

That's a 12.45 cushion in the pick's favour.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 30.3 points + rebounds + assists, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 6.2 from the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 19 of the last 20 games, Franz Wagner finished on the pick's side.

At 1.87, break-even means hitting about 10.7 out of every 20; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

In his last 4 games he posted 45, 29, 33, 27 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 19 of 20 across the whole sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 8.39 points + rebounds + assists: a consistent player who rarely goes off script, and the line sits 1.5 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 24.44 per game over 9 games.

Toronto Raptors allow 173.33 points + rebounds + assists per game over their last 3 (league average: 186.26); that ranks 26 of 29 among the teams that give up the most.

The combined Under likes a game that is decided early and sends Franz Wagner to the bench, or a night when several categories fall short at once.

The risk is that he adds up in all three at the same time.

The AI doesn't bet on hunches: it takes the real Franz Wagner series, checks it against what the market as a whole expects for this line, and only when the best available price sits above that estimate does it publish the pick.

A rule to keep in mind: without Franz Wagner in the game, the bet is void.