🔮 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Nashville Predators Prediction & Pick (October 6, 2026)

Why this pick

The pick is F. Forsberg Under 3.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Filip Forsberg went over the line of 3.5 shots on goal in 3 of 12, averaging 2.33 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 9 of 12 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 6, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Filip Forsberg's last 12 games

9 of 12 under 3.5

3.5

3vs Montréal Canadiens · 1-4 · 03/28

4vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 2-3 · 03/29

1vs Los Angeles Kings · 5-4 · 04/03

2vs San Jose Sharks · 6-3 · 04/05

4vs Los Angeles Kings · 2-3 · 04/07

2vs Anaheim Ducks · 5-0 · 04/08

0vs Utah Mammoth · 1-4 · 04/10

1vs Minnesota Wild · 2-1 · 04/11

2vs San Jose Sharks · 2-3 · 04/14

6vs Anaheim Ducks · 4-5 · 04/17

2vs Minnesota Wild · 1-3 · 10/02

1vs Dallas Stars · 2-1 · 10/04

Recent winning player props

• Pittsburgh Penguins vs Winnipeg Jets ✓ Won
• Detroit Red Wings vs Winnipeg Jets ✓ Won
• Minnesota Wild vs Boston Bruins ✓ Won

The AI read

The pick is Filip Forsberg: Under 3.5 shots on goal at 1.77.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Filip Forsberg finishes below that number.

Filip Forsberg has been averaging 2.33 shots on goal over 12 games, and the book set the line at 3.5: 1.17 above that average.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 2.2 shots on goal, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it; it also sits on the pick's side, 1.3 from the line.

Game by game against this line, 9 out of 12 would have cashed.

For odds of 1.77 to pay off you need to hit about 6.8 out of every 12: the Filip Forsberg record sits comfortably above that.

His last 4 games (1, 2, 6, 2, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 1.67 from his average, and the line sits 0.7 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 2.17 over 6 games.

A shots Under wants a tight game with limited minutes for him; its risk is the power play, where shots pile up fast.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Filip Forsberg clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Filip Forsberg doesn't play, the bet is voided.

What can go wrong: an open game with plenty of power plays, where the numbers pile up fast.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.77 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.