🔮 Prediction for Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is J. Poeltl Under 7.5 rebounds. Over his last 20 games, Jakob Poeltl went over the line of 7.5 rebounds in 5 of 20, averaging 5.6 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 15 of 20 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 11.

Jakob Poeltl's last 20 games

16 of 20 under 7.5

7.5

2vs Boston Celtics · 04/05

6vs Miami Heat · 04/07

2vs Miami Heat · 04/09

3vs New York Knicks · 04/10

5vs Brooklyn Nets · 04/12

6vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/18

4vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/20

6vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/24

6vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/26

9vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/29

4vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 05/01

7vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 05/03

6vs Chicago Bulls · 10/21

9vs Washington Wizards · 10/23

1vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 10/25

2vs Orlando Magic · 10/28

11vs Orlando Magic · 10/30

5vs Denver Nuggets · 11/05

11vs Milwaukee Bucks · 11/07

7vs Memphis Grizzlies · 11/10

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AI Pick for Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors – NBA

For this matchup the AI picked a prop: Jakob Poeltl, Under 7.5 rebounds, at 2.09.

The final score changes nothing; all that counts is what Jakob Poeltl does.

Over his last 20 games he averages 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 below the line: the typical Jakob Poeltl number is already on the pick's side.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 6.7 rebounds, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.8 from the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 20 games, it would have won 16 times.

Is it enough? At 2.09 you need to win roughly 9.6 out of every 20 just to break even, and Jakob Poeltl has been well above that bar.

In his last 4 games he posted 7, 11, 5, 11: only 2 of 4 on the pick's side, below the 16 of 20 across the whole sample.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, already accounts for that run.

With a standard deviation of 2.89 across these 20 games, Jakob Poeltl's output varies a normal amount: the line is 0.7 deviations from his average.

Within the sample, Jakob Poeltl averages 5.7 rebounds in his 10 road games, which is how he plays today.

The Philadelphia 76ers defense: 46.9 rebounds allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 43.72 (rank 5 of 30, where 1 gives up the most).

The rebounds Under depends on there being little to grab: shots that go in, a slow pace or minutes trimmed by a wide margin.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Jakob Poeltl frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.

A rule to keep in mind: without Jakob Poeltl in the game, the bet is void.