🔮 Prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is J. Grant Over 1.5 threes. Over his last 20 games, Jerami Grant went over the line of 1.5 threes in 16 of 20, averaging 1.9 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 16 of 20 (80%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 4, with 2 blanks in those 20.

Jerami Grant's last 20 games

12 of 20 over 1.5

1.5

4vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 03/21

4vs Milwaukee Bucks · 03/26

2vs Dallas Mavericks · 03/28

4vs Phoenix Suns · 04/15

1vs San Antonio Spurs · 04/20

0vs San Antonio Spurs · 04/22

2vs San Antonio Spurs · 04/25

1vs San Antonio Spurs · 04/26

1vs San Antonio Spurs · 04/29

2vs Utah Jazz · 10/22

1vs Golden State Warriors · 10/24

1vs Sacramento Kings · 10/26

3vs Utah Jazz · 10/27

0vs Portland Trail Blazers · 10/30

1vs Sacramento Kings · 11/01

2vs New Orleans Pelicans · 11/03

2vs Indiana Pacers · 11/05

2vs Oklahoma City Thunder · 11/07

3vs Toronto Raptors · 11/10

2vs Denver Nuggets · 11/12

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AI Pick for New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies – NBA

Jerami Grant Over 1.5 threes (Memphis Grizzlies), at 2.05.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Jerami Grant stat line when it's over.

Jerami Grant has been averaging 1.9 threes over 20 games, and the book set the line at 1.5: 0.4 below that average.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 1.9 threes, practically the same as the plain average; it also sits on the pick's side, 0.4 from the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 12 of the last 20 games, Jerami Grant finished on the pick's side.

For odds of 2.05 to pay off you need to hit about 9.8 out of every 20: the Jerami Grant record sits comfortably above that.

Recent form backs it: 2, 3, 2, 2 in the last 4, with 4 of 4 on the pick's side, above the rate for the full sample (12 of 20).

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 1.8 per game over 10 games.

He has already faced New Orleans Pelicans within the sample: 2 threes in that game.

The New Orleans Pelicans defense: 14.5 threes allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 13.54 (rank 7 of 30, where 1 gives up the most).

For the threes Over, volume is what counts: the more threes he attempts, the better his chance of reaching the line of 1.5.

Outside shooting is high-variance and one cold night can switch it off.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Jerami Grant clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rule to keep in mind: without Jerami Grant in the game, the bet is void.