🔮 Prediction for Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is O. Toppin Over 9.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Obi Toppin went over the line of 9.5 points in 19 of 20, averaging 13.85 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 19 of 20 (95%).

Across the sample his range runs from 6 to 26.

Obi Toppin's last 20 games

16 of 20 over 9.5

9.5

15vs Los Angeles Lakers · 03/25

20vs LA Clippers · 03/27

12vs Miami Heat · 03/29

6vs Chicago Bulls · 04/02

11vs Charlotte Hornets · 04/03

21vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/05

14vs Minnesota Timberwolves · 04/07

26vs Brooklyn Nets · 04/09

7vs Philadelphia 76ers · 04/10

21vs Detroit Pistons · 04/12

20vs New Orleans Pelicans · 10/22

13vs Dallas Mavericks · 10/23

16vs Brooklyn Nets · 10/25

14vs Milwaukee Bucks · 10/27

13vs Philadelphia 76ers · 10/28

11vs Memphis Grizzlies · 11/05

10vs Denver Nuggets · 11/07

10vs Dallas Mavericks · 11/10

8vs Washington Wizards · 11/12

9vs New York Knicks · 11/14

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AI Pick for Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers – NBA

The pick is Obi Toppin: Over 9.5 points at 1.87.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Obi Toppin finishes above that number.

Obi Toppin has been averaging 13.85 points over 20 games, and the book set the line at 9.5: 4.35 below that average.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 13, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 3.5 above the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 16 of the last 20 games, Obi Toppin finished on the pick's side.

At 1.87, break-even means hitting about 10.7 out of every 20; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

A word on form: 9, 8, 10, 10 in his last 4 games, with 2 of 4 on the pick's side, fewer than across the full sample (16 of 20).

Since the model weights recent games more, that run is already inside its projection.

With a standard deviation of 5.37 across these 20 games, Obi Toppin's output varies a normal amount: the line is 0.8 deviations from his average.

Today's setting counts too: on the road, in the sample, he's at 15 per game over 9 games.

Against Philadelphia 76ers, today's opponent, he posted 13, 7 in the sample.

The Philadelphia 76ers defense: 110 points allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 113.24 (rank 22 of 30, where 1 gives up the most).

Obi Toppin's points depend on minutes and on the shots that come his way: if he plays a lot and his team looks for him, the line of 9.5 is within reach.

A close game that isn't settled before the fourth quarter is the best setting.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Obi Toppin actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

A rule to keep in mind: without Obi Toppin in the game, the bet is void.

The concrete risk: the game is settled early and Obi Toppin plays less than usual.

One last practical note: 1.87 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.