Why this pick
The pick is T. Maxey Over 25.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Tyrese Maxey went over the line of 25.5 points in 14 of 20, averaging 26 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 14 of 20 (70%).
Across the sample his range runs from 13 to 38.
Tyrese Maxey's last 20 games
Recent winning player props
How did the AI reach this prediction?
Absences and doubts
- Joel Embiid Doubtful 22.9 pts · 34 min
- Nic Claxton Out 8.6 pts · 23 min
- Jalen Smith Doubtful 11.1 pts · 23 min
AI Pick for Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls – NBA
The play is Tyrese Maxey Over 25.5 points at 1.91.
This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.
Tyrese Maxey has been averaging 26 points over 20 games, and the book set the line at 25.5: 0.5 below that average.
The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 28 points, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it; it also sits on the pick's side, 2.5 from the line.
Real frequency is the most honest number: in 13 of the last 20 games, Tyrese Maxey finished on the pick's side.
Is it enough? At 1.91 you need to win roughly 10.5 out of every 20 just to break even, and Tyrese Maxey has been well above that bar.
Recent form backs it: 38, 27, 27, 29 in the last 4, with 4 of 4 on the pick's side, above the rate for the full sample (13 of 20).
With a standard deviation of 6 across these 20 games, Tyrese Maxey is one of the steady ones: the line is 0.1 deviations from his average.
Within the sample, Tyrese Maxey averages 25.73 points in his 11 home games, which is how he plays today.
Chicago Bulls allow 129.33 points per game over their last 6 (league average: 114.08); that ranks 1 of 30 among the teams that give up the most.
Tyrese Maxey's points depend on minutes and on the shots that come his way: if he plays a lot and his team looks for him, the line of 25.5 is within reach.
A close game that isn't settled before the fourth quarter is the best setting.
Two sources sit behind the pick: what Tyrese Maxey actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.
When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.
A rule to keep in mind: without Tyrese Maxey in the game, the bet is void.
What can go wrong: a blowout that sends the starters to the bench before the fourth quarter, an injury during the game or a cut in minutes.
One last practical note: 1.91 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.
How to bet this pick
- Minimum recommended odds: 1.76 — if the odds drop below that, the expected value fades.
- Suggested stake: 170 units on your reference bankroll.
- Before betting: bankroll management · value bet calculator.
🤖 This pick was generated by gambeta.ai's AI. The full record of every prediction (winners and losers) is public and updated live.
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