🔮 Prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans – NFL (October 18)

Why this pick

The pick is W. Marks Under 49.5 rushing yds. Over his last 8 games, Woody Marks went over the line of 49.5 rushing yds in 2 of 8, averaging 41.88 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 6 of 8 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 8 to 112.

Woody Marks's last 8 games

6 of 8 under 49.5

49.5

71vs Los Angeles Chargers · 20-16 · 12/27

48vs Indianapolis Colts · 38-30 · 01/04

112vs Pittsburgh Steelers · 30-6 · 01/13

17vs New England Patriots · 16-28 · 01/18

42vs Buffalo Bills · 31-36 · 09/13

8vs Cincinnati Bengals · 6-20 · 09/20

15vs Indianapolis Colts · 17-19 · 09/27

22vs Dallas Cowboys · 30-34 · 10/04

Recent winning player props

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AI Pick for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans – NFL

The play is Woody Marks Under 49.5 rushing yards at 1.77.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

First fact: the line of 49.5 sits 7.63 above what Woody Marks produces on average, 41.88 rushing yards per game over the last 8.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 25.2 rushing yards, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it; it also sits on the pick's side, 24.3 from the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 8 games, it would have won 6 times.

For odds of 1.77 to pay off you need to hit about 4.5 out of every 8: the Woody Marks record sits comfortably above that.

In his last 4 games he posted 22, 15, 8, 42 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 6 of 8 across the whole sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 35.23 rushing yards: a boom-or-bust player, capable of games far above and far below his average, and the line sits 0.2 deviations from his average.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 53.75 over 4 games, a bit above his norm.

For the Under, every run counts against it, and one long one can be enough to lose it.

The model doesn't assume how the game will be played: it leans on what Woody Marks has been producing on the ground.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Woody Marks frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.

What can go wrong: one isolated big play, or a game that forces his team to change plans — in the NFL, a lopsided score changes how much a team throws and how much it runs.

One last practical note: 1.77 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.