🔮 Prediction for Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is A. Nesmith Under 3.5 rebounds. Over his last 20 games, Aaron Nesmith went over the line of 3.5 rebounds in 5 of 20, averaging 2.45 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 15 of 20 (75%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 7, with 1 blanks in those 20.

Aaron Nesmith's last 20 games

17 of 20 under 3.5

3.5

2vs Washington Wizards · 02/20

3vs LA Clippers · 03/05

3vs Los Angeles Lakers · 03/07

1vs Portland Trail Blazers · 03/09

4vs Sacramento Kings · 03/11

2vs New York Knicks · 03/13

2vs Milwaukee Bucks · 03/15

1vs New York Knicks · 03/17

3vs Portland Trail Blazers · 03/18

2vs San Antonio Spurs · 03/22

2vs Orlando Magic · 03/23

3vs Los Angeles Lakers · 03/25

7vs LA Clippers · 03/27

4vs Dallas Mavericks · 10/23

1vs Brooklyn Nets · 10/25

0vs Milwaukee Bucks · 10/27

2vs Philadelphia 76ers · 10/28

3vs Miami Heat · 10/31

3vs Brooklyn Nets · 11/01

1vs Memphis Grizzlies · 11/05

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AI Pick for Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets – NBA

For this matchup the AI picked a prop: Aaron Nesmith, Under 3.5 rebounds, at 1.74.

The final score changes nothing; all that counts is what Aaron Nesmith does.

Aaron Nesmith has been averaging 2.45 rebounds over 20 games, and the book set the line at 3.5: 1.05 above that average.

The model's projection, which weights recent games more, is 2.4 rebounds, practically the same as the plain average; it also sits on the pick's side, 1.1 from the line.

Game by game against this line, 17 out of 20 would have cashed.

For odds of 1.74 to pay off you need to hit about 11.5 out of every 20: the Aaron Nesmith record sits comfortably above that.

In his last 4 games he posted 1, 3, 3, 2 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 17 of 20 across the whole sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 1.5 from his average, and the line sits 0.7 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

Today's setting counts too: at home, in the sample, he's at 3.43 per game over 7 games.

The Denver Nuggets defense: 43.57 rebounds allowed per game over 7 games, against a league average of 44.2 (rank 20 of 30, where 1 gives up the most).

The rebounds Under depends on there being little to grab: shots that go in, a slow pace or minutes trimmed by a wide margin.

The model doesn't settle for a single number: it crosses the real Aaron Nesmith frequency against this line with the bookmakers' consensus, and only publishes the pick when the available odds pay more than that count says.

A rule to keep in mind: without Aaron Nesmith in the game, the bet is void.

The concrete risk: an inspired night from Aaron Nesmith, with heavy minutes and a game that stays close to the end.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.74 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.