🔮 Prediction for Dallas Stars vs Montréal Canadiens – NHL (October 29)

Why this pick

The pick is N. Dobson Over 1.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Noah Dobson went over the line of 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of 12, averaging 2.17 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 8 of 12 (67%).

Across the sample his range runs from 1 to 5.

Noah Dobson's last 12 games

8 of 12 over 1.5

1.5

1vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 3-2 · 09/29

1vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 5-6 · 10/03

2vs Carolina Hurricanes · 4-6 · 10/06

2vs Nashville Predators · 2-5 · 10/08

1vs Detroit Red Wings · 1-0 · 10/10

2vs Buffalo Sabres · 4-3 · 10/13

5vs Washington Capitals · 4-5 · 10/14

3vs Buffalo Sabres · 4-3 · 10/17

4vs San Jose Sharks · 3-4 · 10/20

2vs Chicago Blackhawks · 4-1 · 10/24

1vs Winnipeg Jets · 2-1 · 10/25

2vs St. Louis Blues · 2-0 · 10/28

Recent winning player props

• Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils ✓ Won
• Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers ✓ Won
• Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs ✓ Won

AI Pick for Dallas Stars vs Montréal Canadiens – NHL

The play is Noah Dobson Over 1.5 shots on goal at 1.97.

This isn't a bet on a team but on one player's number, and that number has a track record.

First fact: the line of 1.5 sits 0.67 below what Noah Dobson produces on average, 2.17 shots on goal per game over the last 12.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 2.3, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 0.8 above the line.

Against this same line, the pick would have landed in 8 of his last 12 games.

For odds of 1.97 to pay off you need to hit about 6.1 out of every 12: the Noah Dobson record sits comfortably above that.

His last 4 games (2, 1, 2, 4, newest first) leave 3 of 4 on the pick's side: no sharp change from the full sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 1.27 from his average, and the line sits 0.5 of those deviations away.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 2 over 6 games.

Dallas Stars allow 21.6 shots on goal per game over their last 10 (league average: 27.35); that ranks 32 of 32 among the teams that give up the most.

Shots on goal depend on ice time and power-play usage: more minutes, more shots.

A game where his team trails usually pushes the volume up.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Noah Dobson clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rule to keep in mind: without Noah Dobson in the game, the bet is void.

What can go wrong: his coach cutting his minutes or moving him down the lineup, or a tight game in which his team barely shoots.

And a price tip: if the odds are below 1.97 when you bet, the edge the AI sees shrinks; if they're above, even better.