🔮 Prediction for Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is J. Johnson Under 21.5 points. Over his last 20 games, Jalen Johnson went over the line of 21.5 points in 7 of 20, averaging 18.85 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 13 of 20 (65%).

Across the sample his range runs from 12 to 30.

Jalen Johnson's last 20 games

16 of 20 under 21.5

21.5

18vs Orlando Magic · 04/01

18vs Brooklyn Nets · 04/03

21vs New York Knicks · 04/06

12vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/08

18vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/10

23vs New York Knicks · 04/18

17vs New York Knicks · 04/21

24vs New York Knicks · 04/23

14vs New York Knicks · 04/25

18vs New York Knicks · 04/29

21vs New York Knicks · 04/30

20vs Orlando Magic · 10/21

19vs Charlotte Hornets · 10/23

26vs Houston Rockets · 10/25

21vs Houston Rockets · 10/27

12vs Miami Heat · 10/28

17vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 10/30

13vs New Orleans Pelicans · 10/31

30vs Brooklyn Nets · 11/08

15vs Los Angeles Lakers · 11/10

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AI Pick for Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks – NBA

Jalen Johnson Under 21.5 points (Atlanta Hawks), at 2.05.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Jalen Johnson stat line when it's over.

Jalen Johnson has been averaging 18.85 points over 20 games, and the book set the line at 21.5: 2.65 above that average.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 19.2, practically the same as the plain average, 2.3 below the line.

Game by game against this line, 16 out of 20 would have cashed.

At 2.05, break-even means hitting about 9.8 out of every 20; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

In his last 4 games he posted 15, 30, 13, 17 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 16 of 20 across the whole sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 4.65 from his average, and the line sits 0.6 of those deviations away: little room for surprises.

Within the sample, Jalen Johnson averages 17.9 points in his 10 road games, which is how he plays today.

Chicago Bulls allow 128.8 points per game over their last 10 (league average: 113.35); that ranks 1 of 30 among the teams that give up the most.

The points Under plays on two things: a slow pace and trimmed minutes.

A defence that knocks him out of rhythm, or a blowout that sends him to the bench early, helps.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Jalen Johnson clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Jalen Johnson doesn't play, the bet is voided.