🔮 Prediction for Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies with AI | NBA 🏀

Why this pick

The pick is C. Coward Over 6.5 rebounds. Over his last 20 games, Cedric Coward went over the line of 6.5 rebounds in 14 of 20, averaging 6.3 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 14 of 20 (70%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 16, with 2 blanks in those 20.

Cedric Coward's last 20 games

11 of 20 over 6.5

6.5

16vs Philadelphia 76ers · 03/10

3vs Detroit Pistons · 03/13

0vs Chicago Bulls · 03/17

7vs Denver Nuggets · 03/19

1vs San Antonio Spurs · 03/26

4vs Houston Rockets · 03/28

9vs Chicago Bulls · 03/29

3vs Phoenix Suns · 03/31

0vs New York Knicks · 04/02

2vs Toronto Raptors · 04/04

5vs Cleveland Cavaliers · 04/07

6vs Denver Nuggets · 04/09

7vs Utah Jazz · 10/22

11vs Sacramento Kings · 10/26

11vs Utah Jazz · 10/27

7vs Portland Trail Blazers · 10/30

7vs Sacramento Kings · 11/01

9vs New Orleans Pelicans · 11/03

9vs Indiana Pacers · 11/05

9vs Oklahoma City Thunder · 11/07

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AI Pick for Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies – NBA

Cedric Coward Over 6.5 rebounds (Memphis Grizzlies), at 2.02.

The final score doesn't matter; what matters is the Cedric Coward stat line when it's over.

His average over the last 20 games is 6.3, below the line of 6.5, but the average is misleading: a few weak games drag it down (his floor in the sample is 0).

Half of his games ended at 7 or more, and that's what the pick looks at.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 7.5, higher than the plain average because his most recent games came in above it, 1 above the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 20 games, it would have won 11 times.

For odds of 2.02 to pay off you need to hit about 9.9 out of every 20: the Cedric Coward record sits comfortably above that.

In his last 4 games he posted 9, 9, 9, 7 (most recent first): 4 of 4 on the pick's side, better than the 11 of 20 across the whole sample.

With a standard deviation of 4.13 across these 20 games, Cedric Coward is one of the streaky ones: the line is 0.0 deviations from his average.

He plays on the road today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 7.71 over 7 games, a bit above his norm.

A direct precedent: against Toronto Raptors he put up 2 rebounds within the games analysed.

Toronto Raptors allow 40.89 rebounds per game over their last 9 (league average: 44.21); that ranks 28 of 30 among the teams that give up the most.

For the rebounds Over it is enough for the game to have plenty of missed shots and for Cedric Coward to stay on the floor.

If a big teammate is out, even more falls to him.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Cedric Coward clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

If Cedric Coward ends up not playing, the bet is voided: the risk of a late scratch isn't on the bettor.

The concrete risk: the game is settled early and Cedric Coward plays less than usual.

One last practical note: 2.02 is the reference price; if you find it lower, the value fades, and if it's higher, the pick improves.