🔮 Prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche with AI | NHL 🏒

Why this pick

The pick is D. Raddysh Under 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Darren Raddysh went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 5 of 12, averaging 2.42 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 7 of 12 (58%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 6, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Darren Raddysh's last 12 games

7 of 12 under 2.5

2.5

3vs Buffalo Sabres · 4-5 · 10/15

3vs New York Islanders · 1-4 · 10/17

5vs San Jose Sharks · 3-1 · 10/19

1vs Columbus Blue Jackets · 6-2 · 10/20

2vs New York Rangers · 5-4 · 10/22

0vs Edmonton Oilers · 7-2 · 10/24

3vs Calgary Flames · 2-5 · 10/27

1vs Seattle Kraken · 4-5 · 10/29

2vs Vancouver Canucks · 4-2 · 10/31

6vs Utah Mammoth · 2-3 · 11/04

1vs Montréal Canadiens · 2-4 · 11/08

2vs New Jersey Devils · 0-4 · 11/09

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AI Pick for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche – NHL

The pick is Darren Raddysh: Under 2.5 shots on goal at 2.10.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Darren Raddysh finishes below that number.

Over his last 12 games he averages 2.42 shots on goal, 0.08 below the line: the typical Darren Raddysh number is already on the pick's side.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 2.3, practically the same as the plain average, 0.2 below the line.

Had this bet been placed in each of his last 12 games, it would have won 7 times.

Is it enough? At 2.10 you need to win roughly 5.7 out of every 12 just to break even, and Darren Raddysh has been well above that bar.

In his last 4 games he posted 2, 1, 6, 2 (most recent first): 3 of 4 on the pick's side, in line with the 7 of 12 across the whole sample.

How stable is he? Game to game he strays about 1.73 from his average, and the line sits 0.0 of those deviations away: a player who can break the mould in either direction.

Within the sample, Darren Raddysh averages 3.14 shots on goal in his 7 home games, which is how he plays today.

The Colorado Avalanche defense: 28.2 shots on goal allowed per game over 10 games, against a league average of 27.62 (rank 15 of 32, where 1 gives up the most).

The shots-on-goal Under wants a clogged game with little ice time for Darren Raddysh; what threatens it most are power plays, where shots come fast and often.

Where does the edge come from? From comparing two things: how often Darren Raddysh clears this line or not in real life, and the market's consensus price.

When the odds on offer pay more than that blend, there's value.

A rules detail: if Darren Raddysh doesn't play, the bet is voided.

The concrete risk: an end-to-end game with man advantages, where Darren Raddysh piles up minutes and chances.

On price: the edge the AI flags is calculated at 2.10; below that it shrinks, above it grows.