🔮 Prediction for Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning with AI | NHL 🏒

Why this pick

The pick is A. Fantilli Over 2.5 shots. Over his last 12 games, Adam Fantilli went over the line of 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of 12, averaging 3.17 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 7 of 12 (58%).

Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 6, with 1 blanks in those 12.

Adam Fantilli's last 12 games

7 of 12 over 2.5

2.5

2vs Florida Panthers · 3-7 · 10/13

5vs New York Rangers · 1-0 · 10/17

2vs Minnesota Wild · 1-2 · 10/18

6vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 2-6 · 10/20

2vs Vegas Golden Knights · 2-1 · 10/24

2vs Philadelphia Flyers · 4-3 · 10/27

4vs Carolina Hurricanes · 2-3 · 10/29

3vs Dallas Stars · 1-3 · 11/01

4vs Colorado Avalanche · 7-2 · 11/04

5vs Dallas Stars · 2-1 · 11/06

0vs Buffalo Sabres · 2-5 · 11/07

3vs Florida Panthers · 1-4 · 11/11

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AI Pick for Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning – NHL

The pick is Adam Fantilli: Over 2.5 shots on goal at 2.14.

It's a bet on a player, not on the game: it doesn't matter who wins as long as Adam Fantilli finishes above that number.

Over his last 12 games he averages 3.17 shots on goal, 0.67 above the line: the typical Adam Fantilli number is already on the pick's side.

The model doesn't settle for the bare average: it gives recent games more weight and arrives at a projection of 3, lower than the plain average because his most recent games came in below it, 0.5 above the line.

Real frequency is the most honest number: in 7 of the last 12 games, Adam Fantilli finished on the pick's side.

At 2.14, break-even means hitting about 5.6 out of every 12; the sample clears that comfortably, and that gap is the pick's value.

The latest games don't change the picture: 3, 0, 5, 4 in the last 4, 3 of 4 on the pick's side, a similar rate to the full sample.

In the sample, his standard deviation is 1.7 shots on goal: a normal spread, and the line sits 0.4 deviations from his average.

He plays at home today: in that setting, within the sample, he averages 3.86 over 7 games, a bit above his norm.

Tampa Bay Lightning allow 26.7 shots on goal per game over their last 10 (league average: 27.63); that ranks 24 of 32 among the teams that give up the most.

In hockey, shots on goal are a question of minutes: the more time Adam Fantilli spends on the ice, especially on the power play, the more chances he has to add up.

If his team has to chase the game, volume usually climbs.

Two sources sit behind the pick: what Adam Fantilli actually did against this line and what the bookmakers think as a group.

When both agree and the odds overpay, the pick goes out.

A rules detail: if Adam Fantilli doesn't play, the bet is voided.