Colorado Rockies face Arizona Diamondbacks on September 22, 2026 in ⚾ MLB. Gambeta's AI processed the matchup data and built a quantitative prediction. Here is the pick and all the study behind it.
Why this pick
The pick is I. Vargas Under 1.5 total bases. Over his last 15 games, Ildemaro Vargas went over the line of 1.5 total bases in 3 of 15, averaging 0.86 per game. Applied to this pick, it would have landed in 12 of 15 (80%).
The model blends that real frequency with the bookmakers' consensus and lands at 68%, against the 49% implied by the 2.05 price. That gap is the edge.
Across the sample his range runs from 0 to 3, with 6 blanks in those 15.
Ildemaro Vargas's last 15 games
| # | Date | Value | Over the line? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09/20 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 2 | 09/20 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 3 | 09/19 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
| 4 | 09/16 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
| 5 | 09/13 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 6 | 09/12 | 3 | ✗ No |
| 7 | 09/08 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
| 8 | 09/07 | 2 | ✗ No |
| 9 | 09/06 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 10 | 09/05 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
| 11 | 09/02 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
| 12 | 09/02 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 13 | 09/01 | 1 | ✓ Yes |
| 14 | 08/30 | 2 | ✗ No |
| 15 | 08/29 | 0 | ✓ Yes |
Recent winning player props
- Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins ✓ Won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox ✓ Won
- San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins ✓ Won
How did the AI reach this prediction?
The AI flagged this pick as Medium-High — decent conviction, with visible value against the odds.
How to bet this pick
- Minimum recommended odds: 1.89 — if the odds drop below that, the expected value fades.
- Suggested stake: 50 units on your reference bankroll.
- Before betting: bankroll management · value bet calculator.
🤖 This pick was generated by gambeta.ai's AI. The full record of every prediction (winners and losers) is public and updated live.
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