- The league rules: over 4.5 yellows ranges from 21.3% (Netherlands) to 58.9% (Greece), so a global average is of no use.
- Confirmed: the home team gets fewer yellows than the away team (1.98 vs 2.26), and almost one match in five has a red card.
- Limit: this data has no card odds, so we cannot say which market pays, only how often each line lands.
What did we measure, and with what data?
This article counts, it does not opine.
We used the public files from football-data.co.uk.
That is 128 files from 16 European leagues and 8 seasons (2018/19, 2019/20, and 2021/22 through 2026/27).
The 2026/27 season is in progress, and 2020/21 is not in the sample.
In total there are 39,856 matches with yellow and red cards recorded.
They include the Premier League, Championship, the Scottish league, the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2.
Also LaLiga and LaLiga 2, Serie A and Serie B, Ligue 1 and Ligue 2.
Plus the leagues of the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Turkey and Greece.
The calculations are ours, done with a Python script.
Every number comes from that script.
If you want to verify it, download the same files and count.
Honest limit: these files do not include card odds.
That is why we cannot say which market pays.
We can say how often each line lands, and that alone already dismantles several myths.
This is not betting advice and is for adults 18 and over only.
How many yellow and red cards are there per match?
First the overall total.
The average is 4.24 yellow cards and 0.21 red cards per match.
18.4% of matches had at least one red card.
That is roughly one in every five or six matches.
Now, how often the most common yellow card lines are beaten.
The table combines all 16 leagues.
| Yellow card line | Matches | Frequency | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 39,856 | 77.6% | Very frequent |
| Over 3.5 | 39,856 | 60.4% | Frequent |
| Over 4.5 | 39,856 | 42.4% | Less often |
| Over 5.5 | 39,856 | 26.5% | Rare |
| Over 6.5 | 39,856 | 15.2% | Very rare |
Over 3.5 lands in six out of ten matches.
Over 4.5 drops to a little over four in ten.
However, this overall average is no use for your match, because leagues are very different.
Does card frequency change by league?
Enormously.
It is the biggest difference we found.
The Netherlands had 3.03 yellows per match and Portugal 5.19.
| League | Matches | Yellows (average) | Over 3.5 | Over 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium (B1) | 2,094 | 3.96 | 56.4% | 37.2% |
| Bundesliga (D1) | 2,204 | 3.84 | 53.5% | 35.2% |
| Bundesliga 2 (D2) | 2,223 | 4.34 | 65.4% | 45.9% |
| Premier League (E0) | 2,740 | 3.66 | 50.0% | 31.8% |
| Championship (E1) | 4,007 | 3.64 | 50.1% | 31.0% |
| Ligue 1 (F1) | 2,409 | 3.73 | 52.5% | 32.0% |
| Ligue 2 (F2) | 2,498 | 3.76 | 51.8% | 33.1% |
| Greece (G1) | 1,722 | 5.16 | 74.9% | 58.9% |
| Serie A (I1) | 2,750 | 4.36 | 64.7% | 44.8% |
| Serie B (I2) | 2,711 | 4.96 | 75.1% | 57.8% |
| Netherlands (N1) | 2,158 | 3.03 | 37.3% | 21.3% |
| Portugal (P1) | 2,223 | 5.19 | 74.1% | 58.7% |
| Scotland (SC0) | 1,613 | 3.68 | 50.6% | 31.5% |
| LaLiga (SP1) | 2,759 | 4.86 | 69.4% | 53.0% |
| LaLiga 2 (SP2) | 3,334 | 5.04 | 74.0% | 58.0% |
| Turkey (T1) | 2,411 | 4.54 | 64.5% | 47.0% |
The same 4.5 yellow card line lands 21.3% of the time in the Netherlands.
In Greece it lands 58.9%.
That is a gap of almost 38 percentage points.
Same line, two completely different markets.
This dismantles a very common myth: "South American or southern European football is dirtier."
In our sample you can see a certain Mediterranean and eastern pattern.
But there is no South American data, so we cannot claim anything about it.
Myth 1: does the home team get fewer cards?
The home team gets 1.98 yellows per match and the away team 2.26.
The away team gets more yellows in 44.6% of matches.
The home team gets more in 32.2%, and 23.1% are tied.
In every league the away team gets more.
The biggest gap is in Greece: 2.33 against 2.83.
The smallest is in Turkey: 2.20 against 2.34.
Verdict: confirmed.
The data does not explain the cause.
It could be crowd pressure, playing style, or simply that the away team defends more.
Myth 2: does the favorite get fewer cards?
We defined the favorite as the team with the lowest average 1X2 odds.
There are 39,721 matches with valid odds.
| Team | Yellows per match | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.95 | Fewer |
| Favorite's opponent | 2.28 | More |
| Match winner | 1.99 | Fewer |
| Match loser | 2.17 | More |
The favorite gets 1.95 yellows and the opponent 2.28.
That is a difference of 0.33 per match.
It makes sense: the side that defends more commits more fouls.
Watch out for the last row.
The table compares the winner and loser at the end of the match.
It is a snapshot from afterward, not a way to know in advance who will win.
Verdict: confirmed, with a small difference.
The effect exists, but 0.33 yellows is small next to how much things change from one league to another.
Myth 3: are red cards rare?
It depends on what you mean by rare.
On average there are 0.21 red cards per match, and 18.4% of matches have at least one.
The home team gets 0.09 per match and the away team 0.12.
| League | Matches with a red card | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Championship (E1) | 10.7% | The lowest |
| Premier League (E0) | 11.0% | Low |
| Bundesliga (D1) | 13.8% | Medium |
| Serie A (I1) | 17.0% | Medium |
| LaLiga (SP1) | 21.5% | High |
| Greece (G1) | 21.8% | High |
| Portugal (P1) | 24.6% | The highest |
In Portugal almost one match in four has a red card.
In the Championship, one in ten.
Verdict: partly true.
They are rare in England and fairly common in other leagues.
Myth 4: do more fouls mean more cards?
The files also include fouls committed.
The average is 25.2 fouls per match.
For each foul there are on average 0.17 yellows, or one for every six fouls.
The correlation between fouls and yellows per match is 0.41.
It is a positive relationship, but a moderate one.
More fouls tend to bring more cards.
Even so, the league weighs more: Ligue 2 has 27.3 fouls per match but 0.14 yellows per foul, and LaLiga has 26.0 fouls with 0.19.
Verdict: partly true.
Fouls help you see trends, but each league has its own bar for showing cards.
Myth 5: do cards change a lot from one season to the next?
We looked at yellows by season, with all 16 leagues combined.
| Season | Matches | Yellows (average) | Over 4.5 | With a red |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 5,469 | 4.21 | 42.5% | 19.2% |
| 2019/20 | 5,200 | 4.37 | 44.8% | 20.2% |
| 2021/22 | 5,669 | 4.25 | 42.4% | 18.0% |
| 2022/23 | 5,602 | 4.28 | 43.8% | 19.9% |
| 2023/24 | 5,601 | 4.26 | 42.4% | 17.3% |
| 2024/25 | 5,482 | 4.18 | 41.5% | 17.4% |
| 2025/26 | 5,450 | 4.19 | 40.6% | 17.7% |
| 2026/27 (in progress) | 1,383 | 3.96 | 37.8% | 16.5% |
Across the seven complete seasons, the average ranges from 4.18 to 4.37.
That is a narrow range.
The 2026/27 season shows 3.96, but it has only 1,383 matches so far and does not yet cover the whole season.
There is a mild downward trend in red cards, from 19-20% of matches to 17-18%.
Verdict: partly true.
The picture is stable from one year to the next, and the league weighs far more than the season.
What can't we say with this data?
- Which market pays: we have no card odds from any bookmaker.
- Which cards each bookmaker counts: some count points and others count cards.
- What happens by minute: the files have no card minute.
- How the referee influences it in detail: we only have referees from English and Scottish leagues; see them in the referees article.
A frequency without a price is not a bet.
For there to be value, the real frequency has to be higher than the one the odds imply.
If you do not have those odds, there is no conclusion.
How do you go from frequency to a decision?
What to read next
If you want to see who changes these numbers, continue with referees and cards: how they influence the numbers.
There we measure how much the average varies between referees and why most of the differences are noise.
For the other counting market, see corners: myths put to the test.
It uses the same 39,856 matches.
And to organize your data with an AI, there is the guide on how to create your own AI for betting.
More market context in our cards guide and the full route in the guide to AI for betting.
To see how we measure our picks, there is the Betting Journal.
Betting carries risk and is for adults 18 and over only.
If you feel you are losing control, ask for help.
Past data guarantees nothing going forward.
Frequently asked questions
How many yellow cards are there per match?
4.24 on average in our sample.
They come from 39,856 matches in 16 European leagues between 2018/19 and 2026/27.
Red cards run at 0.21 per match.
Each league moves quite far from that average.
How many matches have a red card?
18.4% of matches had at least one red card.
That is almost one in five.
It ranges from 10.7% in the Championship to 24.6% in Portugal.
Does the home team get fewer cards?
Yes, on average.
The home team gets 1.98 yellows and the away team 2.26.
The away team gets more yellows in 44.6% of matches and the home team in 32.2%.
The rest are tied.
Can I use this data to tell if card betting is profitable?
No.
The public files do not include card odds.
We measured how often each line lands, not how much it pays.
To evaluate a bet you need the bookmaker's odds.
Does a red card count as two cards?
It depends on the bookmaker.
Some count points (yellow = 1, red = 2 or 3) and others count cards.
In this article we count yellows and reds separately.
Always read the market rules before betting.
Can an AI tell me how many cards there will be?
Not with certainty.
It can organize data if you give it the data.
Always ask for the source, league, seasons and number of matches behind each figure.