- Five fictional cases: with 5x, 10x and 35x, minimum odds and 7- and 30-day deadlines.
- Look at the cost: if turnover times margin nears the value of the bonus, it is not worth it.
- Look at the pace: a short deadline forces you to bet more than you normally would.
Five rollover bonuses, with numbers (all examples)
A bonus looks nice in the ad.
The real calculation is done with the rollover, the minimum odds and the deadline.
Here are five fictional cases, solved with numbers.
None corresponds to a real bookmaker or reproduces anyone's terms.
They are templates so you can practice with the bonuses you see.
The base formula is in the rollover calculator.
All data are examples with fictional values.
Assumed bookmaker margin: 5%.
The simulation uses fixed odds of 1.80, a fixed stake and 100,000 runs.
Betting is for adults 18 and over only.
How to read each case
- Turnover: how much you have to bet in total to release the bonus.
- Per day: turnover divided by the days of the deadline.
- Expected cost: turnover times the 5% margin.
- Runs that finish: out of 100 attempts, how many complete the rollover without running out of balance.
Case 1 · Small bonus, low rollover and long deadline (example)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit and bonus (100%) | 50 + 50 |
| Rollover | 5x on the bonus |
| Minimum odds | 1.50 |
| Deadline | 30 days |
| Turnover | 50 × 5 = 250 |
| Per day | 250 ÷ 30 = 8.33 |
| Expected cost | 250 × 5% = 12.50 |
| Runs that finish (stake 5) | 99% |
This is the friendliest case.
The daily volume is small and there is almost no risk of running out of balance.
The expected cost of 12.50 is a quarter of the bonus.
An honest verdict would be: it may be worth it.
As long as you bet what you were already going to bet and no more.
Case 2 · 10x rollover on deposit plus bonus and a 7-day deadline (example)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit and bonus (100%) | 100 + 100 |
| Rollover | 10x on deposit + bonus |
| Minimum odds | 1.80 |
| Deadline | 7 days |
| Turnover | (100 + 100) × 10 = 2,000 |
| Per day | 2,000 ÷ 7 = 285.71 |
| Expected cost | 2,000 × 5% = 100 |
| Runs that finish (stake 10) | 68% |
Look at the expected cost.
It is 100, equal to the value of the bonus.
The bonus is worth 0 on average and you take on the variance.
On top of that, you have to bet 285.71 per day for a week.
That is about 29 bets a day with a stake of 10.
It is impossible to analyze that many bets well.
Verdict: not worth it.
There is a 32% chance of running out of balance before finishing.
Case 3 · The giant rollover: 35x on the bonus (example)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit and bonus (100%) | 100 + 100 |
| Rollover | 35x on the bonus |
| Minimum odds | 1.70 |
| Deadline | 30 days |
| Turnover | 100 × 35 = 3,500 |
| Per day | 3,500 ÷ 30 = 116.67 |
| Expected cost | 3,500 × 5% = 175 |
| Runs that finish (stake 10) | 41% |
The expected cost of 175 exceeds the bonus of 100.
On average you lose 75 more than the bonus gives you.
And only 41 out of 100 attempts reach the end.
That is 350 bets with a stake of 10.
About 11.7 per day for a month.
It is an enormous commitment.
Verdict: not worth it.
A 35x is only justified if the real margin you pay is very low and you have plenty of time.
For most people, the bonus costs more than it is worth.
Case 4 · Minimal bonus, but with a short deadline (example)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit and bonus (100%) | 20 + 20 |
| Rollover | 5x on deposit + bonus |
| Minimum odds | 1.50 |
| Deadline | 7 days |
| Turnover | (20 + 20) × 5 = 200 |
| Per day | 200 ÷ 7 = 28.57 |
| Expected cost | 200 × 5% = 10 |
| Runs that finish (stake 4) | 77% |
The expected cost is 10 and the bonus is worth 20.
On paper, there is a margin of 10 in your favor.
But there are 23 chances in 100 of running out of balance.
That is 50 bets of 4 in a week, or about 7 per day.
It is possible, but it forces a fixed pace.
If you do not keep up the pace, the bonus expires.
Verdict: it depends.
It is worth it only if that pace is already yours and the amount does not weigh on your bankroll.
Case 5 · Moderate rollover with reasonable time (example)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit and bonus (100%) | 100 + 100 |
| Rollover | 5x on deposit + bonus |
| Minimum odds | 1.80 |
| Deadline | 30 days |
| Turnover | (100 + 100) × 5 = 1,000 |
| Per day | 1,000 ÷ 30 = 33.33 |
| Expected cost | 1,000 × 5% = 50 |
| Runs that finish (stake 10) | 92% |
The expected cost of 50 is half the bonus.
With a 30-day deadline, that is 100 bets of 10, about 3.3 per day.
It is a pace you can sustain without forcing anything.
Verdict: it may be worth it, with a cool head.
The approximate expected value is 100 − 50 = 50, before counting variance.
Do not take it if it makes you bet on matches you were not going to watch.
Summary table of the five cases
| Case (example) | Turnover | Per day | Cost vs bonus | Finish | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · 5x bonus, 30 d | 250 | 8.33 | 12.50 vs 50 | 99% | May be worth it |
| 2 · 10x dep+bonus, 7 d | 2,000 | 285.71 | 100 vs 100 | 68% | Not worth it |
| 3 · 35x bonus, 30 d | 3,500 | 116.67 | 175 vs 100 | 41% | Not worth it |
| 4 · 5x dep+bonus, 7 d | 200 | 28.57 | 10 vs 20 | 77% | It depends |
| 5 · 5x dep+bonus, 30 d | 1,000 | 33.33 | 50 vs 100 | 92% | May be worth it |
Two signals always show up.
When the cost nears the bonus, be wary.
When the deadline is short, the daily pace rules.
Risk of losing the bonus: how it gets lost
A bonus can be lost in four ways.
None of them requires you to have done anything wrong.
- You run out of balance before completing the turnover.
- The deadline expires and you still lack volume.
- You bet at odds below the minimum and that bet does not count.
- You use a market that does not count, or counts for less than you thought.
That is why you should look at the bonus as a commitment.
You have to think about how much time, how much balance and how many bets you need.
It is not a gift.
When NOT to take the bonus: a three-question rule
If any answer is bad, turn the bonus down.
It is a smart decision.
The best bonus is the one that does not make you change the way you bet.
To see how to add this to your monthly tracking, use the limits spreadsheet.
If you feel a bonus is pushing you to bet more, read betting responsibly.
What to read next
If you want the underlying theory, read what is rollover and bonuses: the fine print.
If your offer is a free bet, use the free bet calculator.
To understand the cost per bet, see what is the bookmaker's margin.
The background guide is AI for betting: the complete guide.
Frequently asked questions
How much do I have to bet with a 100 bonus and 10x rollover?
It depends on the base.
On the bonus alone: 100 × 10 = 1,000.
On deposit plus bonus with a 100 deposit: (100 + 100) × 10 = 2,000.
When is it better not to take a rollover bonus?
When the expected cost nears the value of the bonus.
Also if the deadline is short or it makes you bet more than usual.
In those cases, turning it down is a valid decision.
Is a low rollover with a short deadline better than a high one with a long deadline?
It depends on the daily volume.
A low rollover with a 7-day deadline can demand more per day than a high one over 30.
Calculate turnover divided by days and compare.
Can I lose the bonus even if I do not lose all my bets?
Yes.
You can lose it because the deadline expires, because of odds below the minimum or because of markets that do not count.
Also if you run out of balance before completing the volume.
What does it mean that 68% of runs finish?
It is the result of an example simulation.
It means that, out of 100 attempts at odds of 1.80 and a 5% margin, about 68 complete the rollover without running out of balance.
It is not a personal prediction.
Are rollover bonuses free money?
No.
They have an expected cost that comes from the bookmaker's margin on every bet.
Calculating it before accepting saves you from surprises.