- Of 21,954 matches in 9 leagues, 24.8% end in a draw: almost one in four.
- The frequency changes by league: from 23.3% (Premier League) to 26.7% (LaLiga).
- Runs without a draw exist: the longest one measured is over 35 matches in a row in a whole league, so a draw is never "overdue".
What is the real frequency of the draw?
Many bettors have a gut feeling about the draw.
For some it comes "all the time" and for others it never arrives when they need it.
To settle it, the simplest thing is to count.
We took the final results of nine European leagues since the 2018-2019 season.
In total that is 21,954 matches.
The current season is partial and the source is football-data.co.uk, a public results site.
The result is clear: 24.8% of those matches ended in a draw.
That is one match in four, give or take.
The rest is split between home wins and away wins.
Draws by league: the full table
The average hides differences between leagues.
The table below shows, for each one, the number of matches, the draw percentage and the longest run of matches in a row without a draw.
| League | Matches | Draw % | Longest run without X |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaLiga | 2,779 | 26.7% | 23 matches |
| Serie A | 2,770 | 26.3% | 22 matches |
| Ligue 1 | 2,427 | 25.2% | 23 matches |
| Süper Lig | 2,461 | 25.2% | 23 matches |
| Pro League | 2,118 | 24.3% | 24 matches |
| Bundesliga | 2,223 | 24.2% | 24 matches |
| Primeira Liga | 2,240 | 24.1% | 27 matches |
| Eredivisie | 2,176 | 23.4% | 21 matches |
| Premier League | 2,760 | 23.3% | 37 matches |
Source: results from football-data.co.uk, seasons 2018-2019 to 2026-2027 (the last one is in progress).
The longest run is counted over all the matches of a league in date order.
Why the difference between leagues is not a rule
Between 23.3% and 26.7% the gap looks small.
In a 380-match season it amounts to a dozen draws more or fewer.
That is enough to change the "fair" odds of the draw.
You can come up with hypotheses: playing style, intensity, the weight of the favourites.
They are hypotheses, not proof.
The table describes what happened, it does not say what will happen.
An average percentage is not a prediction.
A league with 26% draws can perfectly well produce none in ten matches in a row.
That is variance, and you have to look at it before betting.
How many matches in a row without a draw are normal?
This is the question that loses money: "it has been six matches since a draw, the next one is sure to come".
That is false, because each match is a separate event.
What you can calculate is the probability of a whole run.
At the average rate of 24.8%, the probability that a match does not end in a draw is 75.2%.
For n matches in a row without a draw you multiply 75.2% by itself n times.
The table shows the rounded result.
| Matches in a row | No draw at all | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 42.5% | Very common |
| 5 | 24.0% | One time in four |
| 8 | 10.2% | One time in ten |
| 11 | 4.3% | Rare, but not exceptional |
| 15 | 1.4% | Very rare in a given series |
These percentages are calculations from the average rate of 24.8%, assumed equal from one match to the next.
Reality is more nuanced, but the order of magnitude is right.
A run of 11 without a draw is rare in one attempt, not in a thousand.
How to use these numbers before betting on a draw
What to remember for a draw prediction
The draw is a frequent result, but never a regular one.
One in four on average, with big irregularities.
That is precisely what makes it hard to bet on blindly.
To bet on it with a method you need your own probability estimate for each match.
That is what a model does, and it is something you can check in a public record.
You can read our public record of picks to see how each prediction is published, with its odds.
Two notes complete this one.
The first explains from what odds a draw starts to be profitable.
The second details the martingale on draws, with its calculations and its limit.
To go deeper into probabilities, also read odds and probabilities and normal losing streaks.
These two notes give the basics for reading any percentage.
For adults aged 18 and over only.
Betting carries real risk and can lead to losses.
Use only money you can afford to lose and set limits before you start.
If you feel you are losing control, ask a professional for help.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of matches end in a draw?
In 21,954 matches from nine European leagues since 2018-2019, 24.8% ended in a draw.
That is almost one match in four.
The figure varies by league, from 23.3% to 26.7%.
Which league has the most draws?
In our sample it is LaLiga, with 26.7% draws.
Serie A follows closely at 26.3%.
The Premier League is the lowest at 23.3%.
Is a draw "due" after a run without an X?
No.
Each match is a separate event: the fact that the last five did not end in a draw does not change the probability of the next one.
This is the gambler's fallacy, and it gets expensive.
What is the probability of 11 matches in a row without a draw?
At the average rate of 24.8% it is around 4.3%.
That means a run of 11 without a draw does happen, but rarely.
If you see many runs, sooner or later it will happen.
Can you bet on the draw blindly?
No, not blindly.
With 24.8% draws you would need average odds above 4.03 to break even, and bookmakers keep a margin.
You have to pick specific matches, not bet on all of them.
Where do these numbers come from?
From the public results on football-data.co.uk, for nine European leagues since the 2018-2019 season.
The current season is partial.
We count the final results, with no filter at all.
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